Based on research compiled by SouthBay, for tomorrow's historical data print for jobless claims.
The SouthBay data shows a 66% y/y drop in hiring (-44% week-over-week), with the heaviest concentration in...[restaurants]. In 2009, when jobless claims were surging at a comparable rate, they were running at 600k initial claims per week. But we didn't have complete shutdowns then.
The number will be slightly lower than actual because of late filings and government processing (the scale will be more than can be handled).