Gold has entered a key decision zone ahead of Tokyo. After a controlled retracement off the 3332 swing high, price has now compressed into a high-probability confluence pocket:
- 50% Fibonacci retracement (3316.3)
- VWAP acting as dynamic support (~3317)
- Trend line support holding from prior structure lows
- Compression below 3332.1 the breakout gate
If Tokyo volume engages, this could trigger a clean structural breakout into higher liquidity zones.
Primary Entry:
- Trigger: 15M or 1H candle close above 3332.1
- Entry Range: 3333.0 – 3334.5 on retest confirmation
- Stop Loss: 3312 (below trend line + VWAP)
Aggressive Entry (Mean Reversion):
- Bounce off VWAP/Fib zone (3316–3317.5) with bullish reaction
- Tighter SL: 3312–3314
- Lower R:R, but better pricing
Target Zones:
- TP1 3340 Minor resistance & round number
- TP2 3365 Prior breakdown zone / supply
- TP3 3390–3400 Extended Tokyo move + trend reversal territory
If I'm Wrong:
A breakdown below 3312 invalidates the bullish thesis. That would signal VWAP failure, trend line break, and potential reversion to 3300 or lower.
Technical Confluence Checklist:
- VWAP support holding - Complete
- 50% Fib bounce attempt - Complete
- EMAs compressing for potential crossover - Complete
- Clean trend line structure intact - Complete
- Low volume chop zone between 3312–3332 - Caution
Tokyo often fakes the initial move. Ideal trigger confirmation comes 30–60 mins after Tokyo open, once liquidity builds. Watch for manipulation wicks around VWAP before committing.
This is a classic quant compression setup, price is coiled into structure, and all major intraday tools align. If we see a clean move above 3332 with volume, the breakout could unfold fast. But lose VWAP and trend line, and the bias flips instantly.
Stay reactive, not predictive. Let price prove direction.
- 50% Fibonacci retracement (3316.3)
- VWAP acting as dynamic support (~3317)
- Trend line support holding from prior structure lows
- Compression below 3332.1 the breakout gate
If Tokyo volume engages, this could trigger a clean structural breakout into higher liquidity zones.
Primary Entry:
- Trigger: 15M or 1H candle close above 3332.1
- Entry Range: 3333.0 – 3334.5 on retest confirmation
- Stop Loss: 3312 (below trend line + VWAP)
Aggressive Entry (Mean Reversion):
- Bounce off VWAP/Fib zone (3316–3317.5) with bullish reaction
- Tighter SL: 3312–3314
- Lower R:R, but better pricing
Target Zones:
- TP1 3340 Minor resistance & round number
- TP2 3365 Prior breakdown zone / supply
- TP3 3390–3400 Extended Tokyo move + trend reversal territory
If I'm Wrong:
A breakdown below 3312 invalidates the bullish thesis. That would signal VWAP failure, trend line break, and potential reversion to 3300 or lower.
Technical Confluence Checklist:
- VWAP support holding - Complete
- 50% Fib bounce attempt - Complete
- EMAs compressing for potential crossover - Complete
- Clean trend line structure intact - Complete
- Low volume chop zone between 3312–3332 - Caution
Tokyo often fakes the initial move. Ideal trigger confirmation comes 30–60 mins after Tokyo open, once liquidity builds. Watch for manipulation wicks around VWAP before committing.
This is a classic quant compression setup, price is coiled into structure, and all major intraday tools align. If we see a clean move above 3332 with volume, the breakout could unfold fast. But lose VWAP and trend line, and the bias flips instantly.
Stay reactive, not predictive. Let price prove direction.
כתב ויתור
המידע והפרסומים אינם מיועדים להיות, ואינם מהווים, ייעוץ או המלצה פיננסית, השקעתית, מסחרית או מכל סוג אחר המסופקת או מאושרת על ידי TradingView. קרא עוד ב־תנאי השימוש.
כתב ויתור
המידע והפרסומים אינם מיועדים להיות, ואינם מהווים, ייעוץ או המלצה פיננסית, השקעתית, מסחרית או מכל סוג אחר המסופקת או מאושרת על ידי TradingView. קרא עוד ב־תנאי השימוש.