US govt Shutdown Impact on GOLD/BTC/SPX/NDX Overview

29 בספט׳

📊 Scenario analysis

Assumed probabilities: 10-day (35%) / 20-day (40%) / 30-day (25%). These skew toward 20–30d expectation while allowing for a compromise CR late next week.

🗓️ 1) 10-day shutdown (quick CR by ~Oct 10)
• 🔑 Catalysts: market wobble + travel/FAA headlines + IPO freeze optics force a deal; leadership meeting produces a clean CR.
• 📉 SPX/NDX: -3% to -5% drawdown from pre-shutdown highs, then sharp relief. Mega-cap quality outperforms; small-caps lag on SBA loan pause.
• 💻 Bitcoin: -3% to -8% (high beta to equities, liquidity cautious); quick snapback if the deal lands and SEC footprint stays light.
• 🟡 Gold: +1% to +3%; fades a bit on resolution as real-rate anxiety reasserts. History shows shutdowns aren’t a reliable gold rocket on their own.

🗓️ 2) 20-day shutdown (through ~Oct 20) — “policy fog trade”
• 🔑 Catalysts: prolonged policy riders; BEA/Census blackout delays GDP/retail sales; SEC skeletal staff extends IPO drought. Fed guidance leans on forecasts, not fresh data.
• 📉 SPX/NDX: -5% to -8%. Factor rotation: low-vol/defensive > cyclicals; brokers/ECM-sensitive names soft; travel/airlines weak on FAA/TSA constraints.
• 💻 Bitcoin: -8% to -15% or flat-to-up if “crypto vs. Washington” narrative picks up while enforcement is thin — mixed precedent. This is the most two-sided asset here.
• 🟡 Gold: +3% to +6% as uncertainty premia build and central-bank-buying narrative stays intact. Stretching to $3,900–3,950 bullion target likely needs an added shock (ratings rhetoric, geopolitical flare).

🗓️ 3) 30-day shutdown (into late Oct) — “risk-off with rating overtones”
• 🔑 Catalysts: political stalemate; louder warnings about governance; issuance continues but optics around fiscal sustainability bite.
• 📉 SPX/NDX: -7% to -12%; HY spreads widen; VIX spikes; defensives/quality lead.
• 💻 Bitcoin: -15% to -25% on de-risking and liquidity run-down unless regulatory paralysis creates a “wild west” window and ETF inflows offset — low probability but non-zero.
• 🟡 Gold: +5% to +10%. A test of new cycle highs is plausible; hitting ~$3,900 quickly would likely require a ratings/FX scare, not just a shutdown.
________________________________________
🧭 What’s different this time
• 📉 Data blackout = policy uncertainty: Delays to GDP/retail sales/trade stats complicate Fed read-throughs — markets price fatter uncertainty premia.
• 📜 Regulatory throttle: SEC/CFTC “skeletal staff” → IPO drought and slower filings (headwind to brokers/ECM), even as EDGAR stays up.
• ✈️ Real-economy micro-pain points: FAA hiring/training halted → travel frictions; SBA lending paused → small-cap cash flow stress.
• ⚠️ Ratings optics: After Moody’s downgrade, governance headlines cut deeper than in prior shutdowns.
________________________________________
🤹 Contrarian angles
1. 🪙 “Bad data is no data” rally: If key prints are delayed, the market extrapolates a dovish Fed trajectory → curve bull-steepening and equities rally on rates, overpowering shutdown angst.
2. 💻 Crypto resilience: A lighter-touch SEC during a lapse can reduce headline risk; BTC has rallied during a shutdown before, though not consistently.
3. 🟡 Gold stall: If real yields back up on supply/duration worries rather than down on growth fear, gold can underperform despite the shutdown — history shows no clean positive beta.
4. 📈 Buy-the-resolution pop: Equities’ median post-shutdown performance is positive at 3–6 months — setting up a tactical sell the rumor / buy the cease-fire template.
________________________________________
💡 Trades & risk management tactical, 2–6 weeks
📉 Equities (SPX/NDX)
• 🛡️ Hedge now, monetize spikes: 4–6 week put spreads on SPX/NDX (≈25Δ/10Δ) sized for a -6–8% path; roll down if we breach the first support zone. Consider VIX 1–2M calls as convex tail protection.
• 🔄 Pairs/tilts: Underweight ECM-sensitive brokers; overweight staples/health-care utilities; short airlines vs. travel alternatives until FAA constraints clear.
💻 Bitcoin
• 🛡️ De-gear & collar: Reduce leverage; implement collars (sell 10–15Δ OTM calls to finance 20–25Δ puts). If we gap lower into -10% territory quickly, look to sell downside skew and pivot to short-dated call spreads into resolution.
🟡 Gold
• 📈 Own upside, respect mean-reversion: Use GLD call spreads (1–2M) targeting +4–8% with limited theta. $3,900–$3,950 bullion target is a stretch on shutdown alone; size for base-case +3–6% unless a ratings/geopolitical catalyst emerges.
📉 Small-caps / credit
• 🛑 IWM vs. QQQ underweight (SBA bottlenecks); keep HY credit hedged via CDX HY or HYG puts into Day 15+.
________________________________________
🔍 Levels & signposts to watch
• 🏛️ Policy tape: Any Senate movement on a “clean” CR; signs of healthcare rider compromise.
• 📅 Data calendar: Official notices on jobs/CPI/GDP timing (BLS/BEA/Census). A confirmed delay → more policy fog premium.
• ✈️ Micro stress: FAA/TSA updates; SEC operating status for registrations; SBA loan queue.
• ⚠️ Ratings rhetoric: Any agency commentary tying shutdown length to governance risk.
________________________________________
📝 Bottom line
• 📉 Base path: A -5–8% equity drawdown with gold +3–6% and BTC -8–15% is the modal 2–4 week outcome if we run ~20 days.
• ⚠️ Tail path: At 30 days, governance optics + data blackout can push SPX/NDX -7–12%, BTC -15–25%, gold +5–10%.
• 🔄 Contrarian risk: A quick CR or a “no data → dovish” impulse squeezes shorts — be ready to pivot to a buy-the-resolution stance.

29 בספט׳

הערה

Gold next week: Key S/R Levels and Outlook for Traders

29 בספט׳

הערה

Gold Bull Markets Long Term Overview and 2025 Market Update

29 בספט׳

הערה

🎁Please hit the like button and
🎁Leave a comment to support our team!

29 בספט׳

הערה

PredictIt prices the chance of a U.S. government shutdown by October 1 at about 69%. The odds have been steady since Sunday.

29 בספט׳

הערה

The government runs out of money at the end of the day Tuesday, and the two parties remain far from an agreement to avert a shutdown.

29 בספט׳

הערה

Polymarket odds of govt shutdown now at 71%

30 בספט׳

הערה

Silver Market Once in a Lifetime Breakout: 120/140 USD PT

30 בספט׳

הערה

After a meeting with congressional leaders and President Donald Trump at the White House Monday afternoon to try to avoid a government shutdown, Vice President JD Vance said, "I think we're headed to a shutdown".

30 בספט׳

הערה

JPMorgan Sees 70% Chance Of Shutdown Lasting 15 Days

1 באוק׳

הערה

The federal government has shut down

1 באוק׳

הערה

The federal government officially shut down at 12:01 a.m. this morning

1 באוק׳

הערה

Most likely duration (point estimate): ~13–14 days, i.e., reopening around Oct 13–14.

Probability it ends within 2 weeks (by Oct 14): ~60–65%.

90% prediction interval: 6–28 days (i.e., Oct 6–Oct 28).

5 באוק׳

הערה

Gold next week: Key S/R Levels and Outlook for Traders

7 באוק׳

הערה

Gold Grid Trading Overview: Effective Strategy for 20% gains

10 באוק׳

עסקה פעילה

BOOM. DONE.

10 באוק׳

הערה

uptober in progress. lmao.

11 באוק׳

הערה

10 bln USD wiped out in crypto on 100% China tariffs

🚨 Historic flush: ~$9.6B in crypto liquidations over 24h (some counts up to $16–19B as the cascade rolled on).
🧨 Trigger: U.S. hits China with 100% tariffs after rare-earth export curbs — global risk-off hits crypto hard.
📉 BTC move: Flash drop toward $102K before a volatile bounce.
👥 Who got rekt: 1.5M+ traders liquidated in a single day.
₿ BTC liqs: Around $1.37B in forced closes.
Ξ ETH liqs: Roughly $1.26B wiped out.
📊 By side: About $8B longs vs $1.5B shorts blown up.
🏦 Biggest single hit: Nearly $90M BTC/USDT liquidation on HTX.
🌍 Macro backdrop: Stocks and metals slid as tariff shock rippled through markets.
🧭 Bottom line: Macro shock + over-leverage = record liquidation and a brutal market reset.

11 באוק׳

הערה

all wrong by Tabaraka
how is it going buddy? ))))

12 באוק׳

הערה

Gold Grid Trading Overview: Effective Strategy for 20% gains

14 באוק׳

הערה

Gold Prices Overview of Primary Catalyst : October 2025