NFLX - Set To Breakout

NFLX here if it breaks above resistance may have a large bounce.

Under the 500 week MA for first time since 2012 and its never been under with clear space.

NDX looking quite bullish after an impulsive day and although it could be an expanding pattern, another daily close will probably confirm that the trend is now up, at least for a solid bounce.

Not advice.

הערה:

NSXUSD has fallen overnight and this will make a big gap increasing upside potential.

I think that this will become an ABC flat correction to go higher and perhaps the timing is that the move up will come next week.

To increase my margin but maintain 1% defined risk I'm going to make an educated guess that having teased above resistance NFLX will pull back today with NDX to 16 May Top @ $195.76 and I will have my stop just below 20 May top @ $188.9. That way I have 2 lows above acting as support - 31 May, 2 June, and also 20 May top @$190.16.

My setup isnt just about control. If it falls below my stop the trend is weak and I will want to re-asses. Notice the trendline. If my stop gets hit it will below the trendline and so may go much lower.

Also notice the after hours gap - suggests a bit of a fall before any recovery.

This certainly isnt a FOMO steup. I may miss the move, but that ok if I do I may find another way to get in with my strategy without trading loose.

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Forgot to say that my entry will be front running the top @ $196.1

הערה:

I think NFLX is at least going to fill that big second gap and that would take it to 0.5 retracement. If I get my entry then this is a 21:1 RR trade. That means I could take this trade 21 times, get it right once and break even.

הערה:

I think the week may have ended with NFLX is a corrective descending channel set to impulse up next week.

If it crosses the supply trendline and prints a momentum candle then I will enter, but for as long as it remains below I will keep my limit entry where it is.

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in*

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I've decided that I dont have enough confidence in NDX direction to have this limit order open, so I'm going to sit on the sidelines for now as I think good chance NDX will hit the 1:1 again. I'll be looking to see where NFLX ROKU PYPL and SQ are if it does.

הערה:

Well NDX has printed H&S and looks set to be heading back to the 1:1 fib sooner or later, and with that NFLX trendline should break. It will be interesting to see where NFLX is when NDX hits 1:1, could be a good swing buy, but all on the assumption that indexes will have a solid bounce, but will need to see more chart to consider if thats on the cards.

הערה:

Well the setup was correct, but i didnt take it as I wasnt confident of indexes. But that seems to be the way this works is that the moves get made in uncertainty then push through when theres more confidence.

I may look to make an entry when there is more confidence.

הערה:

Another shakeout reversal pattern.

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In the end I was right to wait for index confirmation.

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