Nifty : Fundamental view
Global and Indian economy are in doldrums. US economic data have improved but GDP growth in Q2 is expected to fall in between 1.3-1
8% on annualised basis from 1st qtr growth rate of 3.3%. Core capital goods and jobless claims reading for June have improved.Trade deficit has narrowed on account of fall in both import and export. FED is expected to reduce rate by 25 basis points in 30-31st July meeting. FED has raised concern over business investment climate and trade war. China and US have shown little improvement over trade talks. Results of US companies have been below expectation. EU has kept rate unchanged and increased probability of quantitative easing. EU's economic data have raised concern for 2% inflation target achievement. BREXIT on 31st Oct, with or without deal, is almost certain after stern stand of new PM Boris. India has saw 18% decline in automobile sales in June. Plant shut down by auto giant are now routine.1 million jobs in Auto sector are at stake. NBFC crisis could have contagion effect on associated companies and sectors. GST and direct tax target could fall short because of low GDP growth. Maintaining fiscal deficit with targeted range should be a challenge in such condition. Only exception will be disinvestment which is also not worthy to be pursued in depressed market condition.Below average monsoon since 1st June is also a concern which may impact soyabean, cotton and pulses crop. Crude oil prices are trading range bound even after extension of production cut by OPEC till Mar-20. Geo political tension in Gulf and Korean region have escalated.
Risk to global markets are still high. Bottom fishing should be avoided at this moment in Indian markets. Govt's action and trade talk must be followed to get cues for market. 10800-10850 are the levels to watch out for next 30 sessions.
Note : We are active more on our Twitter handle 'tradetech5'. Connect us there for live market trades.
8% on annualised basis from 1st qtr growth rate of 3.3%. Core capital goods and jobless claims reading for June have improved.Trade deficit has narrowed on account of fall in both import and export. FED is expected to reduce rate by 25 basis points in 30-31st July meeting. FED has raised concern over business investment climate and trade war. China and US have shown little improvement over trade talks. Results of US companies have been below expectation. EU has kept rate unchanged and increased probability of quantitative easing. EU's economic data have raised concern for 2% inflation target achievement. BREXIT on 31st Oct, with or without deal, is almost certain after stern stand of new PM Boris. India has saw 18% decline in automobile sales in June. Plant shut down by auto giant are now routine.1 million jobs in Auto sector are at stake. NBFC crisis could have contagion effect on associated companies and sectors. GST and direct tax target could fall short because of low GDP growth. Maintaining fiscal deficit with targeted range should be a challenge in such condition. Only exception will be disinvestment which is also not worthy to be pursued in depressed market condition.Below average monsoon since 1st June is also a concern which may impact soyabean, cotton and pulses crop. Crude oil prices are trading range bound even after extension of production cut by OPEC till Mar-20. Geo political tension in Gulf and Korean region have escalated.
Risk to global markets are still high. Bottom fishing should be avoided at this moment in Indian markets. Govt's action and trade talk must be followed to get cues for market. 10800-10850 are the levels to watch out for next 30 sessions.
Note : We are active more on our Twitter handle 'tradetech5'. Connect us there for live market trades.
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