NIFTY April Analysis - Techn + Fundamentals

Basis previous channel breakouts, the third channel formation is likely.

Why downward channel, and not upward or horizontal channel?

The supply chain shocks of war and petrol price/commodity price shocks will be evident in Jan quarter, results till force downward channel

Fundamentals

USD-INR - Negatives, FII unlikely to comeback immediately
May - 0.5% hike confirmed by Fed, Market will start slowly factoring it in
Oil - To be within 70-110 USD range, will hit margins
Banks - FII offloading will offset gains due to good results - as seen in Dec q results
RBI Hike - Imminent, will see in April first week
Valuations - NIFTY at historic high PE valuation, March rerating unlike to bring it below 18


Unknowns

Massive ceasefire and lifting of sanctions in 1 month (unlikely) will see breach of 17800
COVID breakout and lockdown in Shenzhen/HK - massive supply chain shock can cause major downside
Fed increasing 0.75% due to 10% inflation in US can cause 15k to be broken