לונג

Say Uncle.

מעודכן

The other day, I met a close friend of my roommate.
He tried to shill me GameStop.
After it has already gone up 18,700%.

Nokia on the other hand? Mention it to anyone who knows anything about stocks and you'll get laughed at. He laughed at me.
Even in Finland, apparently Nokia is known as the stock that will always let you down. Always.
From this point forward, I believe that is about to change. Dramatically. Buy anything below $4.75. See you at $22. Soon.

It's time the giant awakens.

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Volume spiking at key inflection points but much more so at support/bottoms lately.

:thinking_face:

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Descending triangle confirmation coming? Or a fake break of support?

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Fair warning- my long term diagonal trend line is, uhhh, tweaked a little bit here...

With last weeks close, the RSI has potentially confirmed support on the same weekly diagonal pivot line (from late 2013) that launched Nokia to $10 during the 'meme' spike. There is also hidden bullish divergence. Much higher price lows but much lower RSI lows.
BUT WAIT, there's more-

Daily picture:

Man, look at the amount of bounces from that weekly trend line.

What about if we draw a daily trend line from the meem spike?

Lately, Nokia has been spending a LOT of time above it...
There has also been a lot less significant dips below the 2013 weekly pivot line. Clearly it is turning into support.
Since the meme spike, Nokia significantly dipped below that trend line only 3 times. Is the 3rd time the charm?
Especially with earnings in the next few days?
BUT WAIT, there's EVEN MORE-

How about a micro trend line pivot?

Notice where the price is at every time it touches or goes above the RSI pivot trend line.
BUT THEN... Notice where the price is now? Yet ... the RSI is above that pivot trend line?
weird.

Let's see the daily picture with all 3 important pivots in the RSI:

I see a few things that really catch my eye here.

Kinda self explanitory here.

Currently, Nokia is WELL below the diagonal trend line resistance in PRICE, but has broken above the micro daily pivot trend line in the RSI for the 3rd time.

What will Earnings do?

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I truly cannot figure out why I keep wasting my time on this.

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I dunno how much 14 vs. 10 means for the RSI, but 10 breaking for real could mean something extraordinarily more explosive than even my dumb*** can believe.

It's DIRECTLY against that trend line as of today. On 10, there have only been a few select times where Nokia has broken above it and on each of those occasions it was short lived.

14:

10:

One last thing to note before tomorrow.

Notice how the resistance is *VERY* clearly defined, yet support isn't?
I drew the first 3 support trend lines that caught my eye and aside from the one nearest to 0 you'd have gotten absolutely murdered trying to 'support' Nokia unless you were a professional.

First thing that comes to mind on why that could be, and I don't know how to explain it very well:

Nokia may not pull a GME percentage-wise, but because sentiment and volatility is/has been so low, the second there IS volatility but WITH follow through, this stock will be front and center on a LOT of very important/influential media/social outlets. GameStop was just a test. It may not be tomorrow, but when it happens, you will know. I may be blown out before that time comes, but it will happen. And you WILL know about it.

Witness Nokia.
Witness the rise of the Phoenix.

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I have referenced this before, but this will be the very last time I do it again because I'm very upset with a certain business right now in crypto, which probably will not change.

Won't bother explaining how/why Nokia is so correlated to the circle in this chart, but the way I feel right now is a xerox copy of what I felt like back then right before bitcoin broke out, straight up launched, and blew everyone's minds.

I might be early.
Might.

But I'm not wrong.
watch

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very*
Might.

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I purposely did not update my NYSE Nokia idea for a while as I wanted to wait for a special occasion to do so.
Maybe this is it. But then again, this is Nokia..

Why this trend line no touchy 2014 resisty?
Cause it already tested that resistance, silly:

This trend line is definitely valid, one of the bigger reasons being a candle break in July 2020. Perfectly situated on the trend line. Not to mention the 3 VERY big reasons of slight breaks above it followed by rejections. The first one being quite bad. Second one not AS bad. Third, even less.
And now, now Nokia has not only finally held it as support, but has closed 1.09 above 50 RSI!

Let's see that trend line on a lower time frame:

October 2020 to January 2021.
*3 Months.*

Can we expect another 'meme spike' in August if history repeats?
On the most recent break above this particular trend line, the RSI then dipped to nearly the exact same level that it launched from last time during the meme spike. ~37.5 ish:

LAST TIME, the RSI dipped to roughly this level ONCE.
On the most recent occasion, however, 3 times. Arguably 4. And it held.

Let's see it on the 15m against local resistance:

Look what Nokia did on just the 15 minute when it dipped below that monthly trend line and then broke back above it.
Hmmm.

HEY, FUTURE SELF! Did you see where PRICE closed in the first screenshots you dummy?

-.-

:O ?

HOMG :0 ?

A ... FULL BAG on the daily directly above resistance?
Decent volume, a retracement BELOW the fib, and a close ABOVE IT!? Not to mention a long MR. SHADOW!?!?!?
wat

There's no way that's actually what I think it is. Right? ...right? In case I'm wrong here my future self will probably be too stupid to see then what I see now, so I won't say it. xD

The 4h RSI was even rejected at dipping back below 70 after a bearish engulfing candle on high volume!?
HWAT!?

Okay. There's a massive amount of bullish signs here. But there are sadly some bearish ones too.
fk.

Hidden bear divs on the weekly.
fk.

Bi-weekly too.
fk.

Other than where price is currently situated considering fibs and all, can't really find many other bearish signs...but then again, this is Nokia, and there is and has been some *serious* accumulation occuring for quite some time.

Wanna know how I know?

Okay. Due to Nokia being Nokia, what price does from here (in my opinion anyway) is basically a 50/50. Apparently no entity/whales want to break Nokia up and out quite yet because they're still accumulating. That is painfully evident due to many reasons but especially the lack of volume. Price did however break multiple serious resistances recently.

Monthly closed directly on the 50% fibonacci retracement from the 2012 low to the 2014 high.
The daily however has now *technically* tested it successfully for support and is showing a small bull flag.
It is also currently showing rejections of closing back below the prior local high of ~$5.12

As of right now I am (ir?)responsibly long on some short dated contracts, and a lot of long dated contracts.
Hindsight may be 20/20, but I can feel it in my bones.
The current yearly candle is going to look more amusing than the weekly meme spike inverted hammer close.
One last thing.
Am a peon compared to the vast majority of the folks over on /WSB/, so I can't afford to fly airplanes with banners behind them or put billboards up in NYC(yet)... but I came up with another method of advertising Nokia. A T-shirt that I will be giving away to people to wear! Just ordered a shirt of the first concept yesterday night.

Check it out ;D

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I forgot the most important part of my entire analysis

Never give up
Gas whale c

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Your shirt might make you feel good.

The reason I made mine is what makes me feel good.

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Interesting action today in the options chain.

The vast majority of Nokia's $5.5 strike prices had *significantly* higher volume than average.
I am a pleb though so I do not know what this may mean...

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Just thought I'd share something else as well.
There is a slight pattern that has been developing since September of last year in Nokia's volume.
With a volume moving average set to 9, and plotting where the moving average peaks every time, you get this as a result:

In my opinion, this quite clearly confirms that there was a lot of accumulation going on at every local low. Volume was especially high at the prior yearly low (Feb/March) as well as in June, only a month before the Earnings Report on July 21.

The shortest time between peaks of volume was a total of 34 days, which was accompanied by a sharp drop in share price.

The longest period between peaks was a total of 62 days. The latter part of which was accompanied by the highest volume in this yearly period thus far. In April/May of this year, strong volumes showed up to (in my opinion) try to save what seemed to be a bull flag consolidation that was forming. Then in the middle of June, a huge burst of volume showed up as Nokia retested the low that was set in early May. Interestingly, there hasn't been another clear 'peak' yet, which brings me to the next part of this update.

With all the peaks added up and averaged out, it takes Nokia approximately 45.6 days on average to have another 'peak' on the volume moving average. As of today, Nokia is 46 days into this current period so far without another 'peak' yet. Therefore, we can make an educated guess that it should/will happen within 62 days of the *previous* peak which occurred on June 23rd. If history repeats, somewhere between today, August 8th, and August 24th, there will be a large spike in volume.

NYSE JUST BARELY held the 9 daily moving average at $5.20.
Helsinki's 9 daily moving average is currently situated at 5.117 Euros, and the daily closed at 5.123 Euros.
The options chain today had significantly higher than average volumes in the $5.5 strike contracts on both puts and calls.
There is also a much larger than (current) average amount of open interest on the options chain for the August 18th expiration:

23,655 $5 calls
4,374 $5.5 calls
6,514 $6 calls

That expiration date occurs 5 days before August 24th, which would be the longest period between 'peaks' on the volume MA in a year. Also interesting to note, the open interest for puts for that expiration date is 9,555 as of today between the $4, $4.5, and $5 strike prices. They are currently all underwater.

Once August 19th passes, there is no noteworthy open interest in puts OR calls until September 16th, then October 21st.
Did I actually for once have good timing with something, and picked the perfect time period to design + print my Nokia t-shirt?

gas whale c

הערה

Hmm. So I had a thought about the options chain that expires on the NINETEENTH, not the 18th as stated above...Typos -.-
There is a good amount of open interest for the coming 8/19/2022 expiration date. It somewhat reminds me of last year...

Last year there was SIGNIFICANT open interest in the options chain for the 6/18/2021 expiration date.
That date was only ~2 months after a significant share price increase from another solid Earnings Report. It was also right around 6 months after the 'meme frenzy' that sent Nokia towards $10. There was also high open interest in the options chain for the 7/16/2021 expiration date. (This is potentially a key difference between then and now.)

There are a good amount of key differences between then and now which lead me to believe Nokia may see a much higher share price in the coming week.

Let's start off with the sentiment.

Then:
Most importantly, there were MANY posts about Nokia on wallstreetbets that came out of nowhere during the 'meme frenzy'.
The 'meme frenzy' still had a large amount of momentum sentiment-wise. A lot of talk about further upside in the "BANG" stocks; Blackberry, Amc, Nokia, and Gamestop.
A LOT of talk about options chains, gamma squeezes/ramps, short squeezes, etc. Very high open interest in all the aforementioned stocks. ESPECIALLY Nokia.
Leading up to the 6/18/2021 options expiration for Nokia specifically, a large amount of people were saying it was gonna moon because Nokia was going to explode and cause a gamma squeeze, etc.
On 5/23/2021 I took a screenshot of the options chain for the 6/18/2021 expiration date. In total, there were just under 500k total open contracts AT THAT TIME:

There were a lot more calls bought before the expiration. A lot more, especially out-of-the-money ones.

Then the next major expiration, only a month later on 7/16/2021 that had huge open interest as well.
Unfortunately I do not have a screenshot of that entire chain, but I do have screenshots of some of the individual contracts.

$6 calls were at ~35k+ open interest.
$7 calls were at a whopping ~85k+ open interest.
The $8, $9, and $10 calls were all also at ~15k+/- open interest too.

Here are the screenshots of all of those calls:
7/16/2021 $5.5:
ibb.co/Q9nF7KX

7/16/2021 $6:
ibb.co/v1hVsm2

7/16/2021 $7:
ibb.co/w6y6n3s

7/16/2021 $8:
ibb.co/HHvNSPr

7/16/2021 $9:
ibb.co/0sRtrG7

7/16/2021 $10:
ibb.co/dtPwSzc

7/16/2021 $19:
ibb.co/FXxRbKY

Now?
Wait ... Nokia? What's that again? Don't they make phones and are a boomer stock?
(Let's not even mention me being laughed at by my roommates buddy which caused me to publish this idea in the first place for being hardcore bullish on Nokia.)

Gramma squeeze? Can you explain? Oh, okay, thanks.
A GRANNY SQUEEZE? ON NOKIA!? LOL??? What are you SMOKING?

I think maybe 2? 3? posts have been made regarding Nokia on wallstreetbets in the past like 10 years?
Okay, ha, ha, obviously I'm being dramatic here but sentiment wise Nokia is dead again on WSB.

Okay and now, the most important part of this update. The options chain data.
Last year the options chain was filled to the brim with open contracts specifically for the 6/18/2021 and 7/16/2021 expirations. An enormous amount of them were out-of-the-money.
What I am trying to point out here is that last year, there were back to back months of mega high open interest for options.

As of today, this is where open interest currently stands:

No sentiment/hype regarding Nokia lately.
Very different set of circumstances in the options chain.
If history repeats, large volume is about to show up.

what happens next...?
I don't know HOW big it will be, but I think this one might finally get some follow through.

gas whale c.

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Oh, okay. Well, that makes a lot of sense.

Oh, okay. Well, that also makes a lot of sense.

"Meme spike"

Hmmm.

50 + 200 Moving averages crossing on the 4h...

Last time that happened, WHILE Nokia was consolidating against a part of the channel, in these cases it was the midline.

2 Day time frame:

And finally, the weekly picture.

Wanna see a magic trick?
I'm going to make this price point disappear

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Why this price point is going to disappear:

Massive channel:

"Dump" on 8/9/21:

Channel on the weekly with a recent breakout:

3 Day, 50 moving average holds:

4 Hour, 50 and 200 moving average golden cross looming:

Original swing fib from 2012/2014:

Swing fib from 'meme spike' to immediate low:

Swing fib from yearly high to yearly low, arguably most important fib? :

Swing fib from immedate low of 'meme spike' to yearly high:

Hourly channel immediately after Earnings:

MAJOR RSI pivot, weekly dating back to 2014:

MAJOR RSI pivot, daily dating back to 'meme' spike, on 10 RSI setting:

Same pivot, but on 15m:

2 Hour confluence with channel mid line as well:

MAJOR RSI pivot, MONTHLY dating back to ~2007:

Again, confluence on 15m:

All major daily RSI pivots:

On the 4h though?

Pattern in RSI on 15m with major pivots:

I could go on and on and on here.
Come on, Nokia. Please. -.-

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-.-

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:thinking_face:

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"Nokia announced it is sending a 4G internet service to the Moon during an upcoming space mission. The company says the technology will hopefully pave the way for more lunar discoveries and create opportunities for a human presence on the Moon and beyond.

The system is expected to be deployed during Intuitive Machines’s upcoming IM-2 mission, which is currently scheduled to launch in November aboard a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket. Intuitive Machines’s Nova-C lunar lander will take the system and other payloads to our natural satellite, bringing Nokia’s 4G communications system to its final destination on the Shackleton crater in the southern region of the Moon, CNBC reports."

gizmodo.com/nokia-sending-4g-internet-moon-nasa-artemis-1850272996

Earnings on Thursday, 4/20.

UnknownUnicorn5836947

פרסומים קשורים

Bottom of RSI channel + Fib confluence in NOKIA

מאת ‎UnknownUnicorn5836947‎

Nokia - a sleeping giant?

מאת ‎UnknownUnicorn5836947‎

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