Nasdaq NQ1 - A Crash Landing
מעודכן
It seems to be clear now that the market will seek lower prices. Although Nasdaq, Dow, and SPX trade more or less in the same direction and at the same time, the specific volatility and specific areas targeted have been very different.
Nasdaq seems to lead the charge lately, going higher than SPX, and sooner.
I hear that retail put a lot of money into buying meme and tech stocks during this two month bear market rally. And although that does tend to lead to higher prices on the way up, it definitely leads to lower prices on the way down.
Often those lower prices happen faster, as retail traders get liquidated, capitulate their spot holdings, or just have all those calls they bought at the top or bought along the way and never took profit on simply expire worthless before their pained eyes.
Although in my recent SPX500 / ES1 call, my theory for what will happen this week, with the week being split partially into August month end and September month open, is relatively conservative:
SPX500 / ES1 - Saved by the Bell
With Nasdaq, I have a theory that the monthly candle could close as low as the July candle, which would actually result in the "Doom Box" being achieved, and there would be no particularly meaningful bounce for September open.
The problem is, traders, when you're paying $950 for TSLA and $176 for AAPL in the onset of a heavy global energy and food crisis. and at a time when the world is on the cusp of something akin to the 1930's Great Depression, you're really delirious.
You're delirious like a person who's had too much to drink. And unfortunately, every drunk knows how quickly the music stops and sober pain arrives after they crash their car into a lamp post on the way home in the middle of the night.
Someone who makes a lot of money doing this for a living sold those bags to you, and now to complete their trade, prices need to come down so you can sell your bags back to them at 30 or 40 cents on the dollar.
I also believe that we're on the cusp of seeing 72 print on VIX as the market crashes, but I doubt very, very much we will see that until September.
VIX - 9x8 = 72
If Nasdaq really comes rocketing down, though, it may drag down SPX, and VIX may print a 35 for month end, leading into total calamity for September open.
A lot of people who buy into the Big Tech cartel stocks also like to trade crypto, to which I would like to tell you that Ethereum is heading for triple digits, whether your PoS mergening is on the way, or not.
Ethereum - The Hard Reality
And BTC is simply heading for $15,000, although I don't think it will happen until September either.
Bitcoin - An Unimpressive Climax
Figuring out what will happen Monday can be discerned by whether or not BTC and ETH hit numbers like $18,000 and $1,350 tomorrow afternoon. If we see those, crypto CME futures will gap down at 6:00 PM open, and then so will the indexes, and Monday's NYSE open won't be so pretty.
What I really want to tell readers is this: you have to stop listening to the propaganda outlets. Twitter, Discords, YouTube, financial "news," establishment "media"... they all work the same:
When institutions are selling, they tell you to buy. When institutions are buying, they tell you to sell. They stoke fear and greed, just like how during elections they rile your hatred and fear, all to get you to do what they want, without a shred of concern for whether you go bankrupt and can't feed your family when WTI hits $180 and Natural Gas is printing $18 in November.
De-risk, especially if you're long, and protect your capital. If you're still thinking this is a time to buy the dip, you're going to get guillotined. There will be a time to buy the dip, and when that time comes, things will be so scary that you won't want to buy the dip anymore.
Instead, you will buy puts waiting for Nasdaq to print 6,000, and the results will be history.
Nasdaq seems to lead the charge lately, going higher than SPX, and sooner.
I hear that retail put a lot of money into buying meme and tech stocks during this two month bear market rally. And although that does tend to lead to higher prices on the way up, it definitely leads to lower prices on the way down.
Often those lower prices happen faster, as retail traders get liquidated, capitulate their spot holdings, or just have all those calls they bought at the top or bought along the way and never took profit on simply expire worthless before their pained eyes.
Although in my recent SPX500 / ES1 call, my theory for what will happen this week, with the week being split partially into August month end and September month open, is relatively conservative:
SPX500 / ES1 - Saved by the Bell
With Nasdaq, I have a theory that the monthly candle could close as low as the July candle, which would actually result in the "Doom Box" being achieved, and there would be no particularly meaningful bounce for September open.
The problem is, traders, when you're paying $950 for TSLA and $176 for AAPL in the onset of a heavy global energy and food crisis. and at a time when the world is on the cusp of something akin to the 1930's Great Depression, you're really delirious.
You're delirious like a person who's had too much to drink. And unfortunately, every drunk knows how quickly the music stops and sober pain arrives after they crash their car into a lamp post on the way home in the middle of the night.
Someone who makes a lot of money doing this for a living sold those bags to you, and now to complete their trade, prices need to come down so you can sell your bags back to them at 30 or 40 cents on the dollar.
I also believe that we're on the cusp of seeing 72 print on VIX as the market crashes, but I doubt very, very much we will see that until September.
VIX - 9x8 = 72
If Nasdaq really comes rocketing down, though, it may drag down SPX, and VIX may print a 35 for month end, leading into total calamity for September open.
A lot of people who buy into the Big Tech cartel stocks also like to trade crypto, to which I would like to tell you that Ethereum is heading for triple digits, whether your PoS mergening is on the way, or not.
Ethereum - The Hard Reality
And BTC is simply heading for $15,000, although I don't think it will happen until September either.
Bitcoin - An Unimpressive Climax
Figuring out what will happen Monday can be discerned by whether or not BTC and ETH hit numbers like $18,000 and $1,350 tomorrow afternoon. If we see those, crypto CME futures will gap down at 6:00 PM open, and then so will the indexes, and Monday's NYSE open won't be so pretty.
What I really want to tell readers is this: you have to stop listening to the propaganda outlets. Twitter, Discords, YouTube, financial "news," establishment "media"... they all work the same:
When institutions are selling, they tell you to buy. When institutions are buying, they tell you to sell. They stoke fear and greed, just like how during elections they rile your hatred and fear, all to get you to do what they want, without a shred of concern for whether you go bankrupt and can't feed your family when WTI hits $180 and Natural Gas is printing $18 in November.
De-risk, especially if you're long, and protect your capital. If you're still thinking this is a time to buy the dip, you're going to get guillotined. There will be a time to buy the dip, and when that time comes, things will be so scary that you won't want to buy the dip anymore.
Instead, you will buy puts waiting for Nasdaq to print 6,000, and the results will be history.
הערה
Opening gap down achieved. Although tbh, I almost expect this to fill for NYSE open, which will be even more fun for bears.הערה
Opening gaps filled. Looks like indexes may spike upwards as Brainard manipulates the market with vacuous rhetoric.Christmas for bears.
הערה
If we filled the opening box on the first day of the week and it turned around and dumped so easily, Doom Box is coming.Non-farm Payrolls tomorrow for Aug. 31. Based on price action, I expect September to open bloody and the chance for a rebound will come at the end.
הערה
The Biden Admin banned semiconductor manufacturers from selling chips to China after hours apparently. Indexes are all down. The bull case for a pump before the dump may be negated.
It's strange that big moves downwards are so scary and yet big moves upwards are so exciting when people are getting wrecked during the moves up just the same as the moves down.
I suppose 'tis a function of buying high, either way.
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