NASDAQ 2025: The First Direction? 25.01.01

Hello, this is Greedy All-Day.
Today’s analysis focuses on the NASDAQ.

Tuesday Briefing Results



Let’s start with the results of Tuesday’s briefing.

Both buy and sell signals played out as expected.

Buy Signal:

The breakout above the resistance trendline and 21476 level was the trigger for a buy entry.
The target was the yellow box supply zone, and the price moved as predicted.
The breakout occurred after the NASDAQ had already corrected significantly, making it a reasonable entry.
Maximum profit for this position was 120 points, equating to approximately $2,400 per contract.

Sell Signal:

For short positions, I recommended waiting for a breakdown of Monday’s low at 21253 in addition to the trendline break.
The price broke 21253 and exceeded the target of 21204, providing a solid short trade.
From the entry point, the NASDAQ dropped 70 points, yielding a profit of approximately $1,400 per contract.

Total Potential Profit:

Combined, the maximum profit for both trades was approximately $3,800 per contract on Tuesday.

Daily Chart Analysis



To prepare for Thursday, let’s examine the daily chart.

As mentioned on Tuesday, the price touched the 60 EMA and briefly broke below it but ultimately closed at the EMA level.
The remaining support is the December 20 low at 21006, which is the key level to watch.
A breakdown below 21006 would confirm entry into the yellow box supply zone or potentially the red box demand zone.

Key Observations:

The red box zone aligns with the lower boundary of the Ichimoku Cloud, which makes it a significant support level unlikely to break easily.
However, the yellow box zone has no clear support levels, as it previously acted as a supply zone that pushed the price upward.
If the price enters the yellow box, expect either volatile swings or a one-directional move, depending on market sentiment.

Descending Broadening Pattern



The NASDAQ is forming a descending broadening pattern after the sharp drop on December 27, 2024.

Key Insights:

Support levels appear weak, and the trend has shifted bearish since December 27.
A complete trend reversal requires a breakout above 21734, the starting point of the pattern.
Trading Strategy:

For short positions: Focus on larger moves, as the downtrend dominates.
For long positions: Keep trades short-term and within the range until a clear breakout invalidates the pattern.

Buy Perspective



Buy Entry Levels:

First Entry: Breakout above the red box resistance trendline and 21360.

If this level breaks, the price may briefly rise to the top of the yellow box at 21442.
However, this is not a full trend reversal, so a conservative approach is recommended.

Second Entry: Breakout above the blue resistance trendline.

If this occurs, the yellow box top will likely already be broken, opening up a potential move to 21571.
Even then, the trend reversal would still be incomplete, so caution is advised.

Third Entry: Breakout above 21571.

This level opens the path to the next significant resistance at 21746, providing a stronger buy signal with momentum.

Sell Perspective



Sell Entry Levels:

First Entry: Breakdown below Tuesday’s low at 21177.

Target: 21128, which corresponds to a past demand zone with historical support from prior wicks.

Second Entry: Breakdown below 21128.

Target: 21006, the December 20 low, which is a critical support level.

Extended Target:

If 21006 breaks, the daily chart opens up for a potential move into the 20000 range, as previously analyzed.

Conclusion

The NASDAQ is currently in a volatile and pivotal zone:

For buyers: Focus on breakouts above key levels (21360, 21571) with conservative targets until a full trend reversal occurs.

For sellers: Use breakdowns of key supports (21177, 21128, 21006) for entries, with room for larger moves in case of further downside.

Patience and precision will be key to navigating this market. Let’s trade smart and make the most of these opportunities. 🚀