70% chance for a downside movement

Technical analysis and probabilities

NZDCAD is currently moving between oblique support zone and the resistance zone. Several signs tell me that this will cause a downward movement. All the signs are listed below:

Technical
Its a down trend with lower high
The Oblique Resistance
The Horizontal Resistance zone

Prababilities:
1. There is 70% chance for a new BOS by the downside
2. There is 29% chance for a BOS by the upside
3. There is 60% chance that probabilities 1 and 2 become true