Short on RBOB
Shorting RBOB ( Gasoline ) at 2.15.
TECHNICAL
This is largely based on a technical situation:
Two (2) fib levels confluence
88.8% ( MAY ’18 -> DEC ‘18 )
1.27% ( MAR ’19 -> APR ‘19 )
One ( 1 ) notable Fib “Time” Level ( 1.382% FEB ’16 -> MAY ’18 ( Bullish Retrenchment ) )
Previous Structure
Mid ’18, Aug ’17 & Jun ‘15
RSI Divergence
RSI ( Daily Chart ) topped out in MAR; a further push up would be x2 divergence
100 Day MA
I haven’t fully quantified this part albeit it will likely end up ~20% above the 100 day moving average; it has certainly exceeded that ( NOV -> DEC ’18 ) albeit 20% was the top in MAY ‘18
Round #
It’s a round #
FUNDAMENTAL
There are a lot of fundamental factors affecting why this might not be a good trade. The US is looking to end waivers on Iran, Venezuela ( it’s happening ), Saudi Aramco is looking to IPO soon, etc.
On the other hand, Trump has been pretty quiet on oil prices ( BTW – I know this trade is RBOB ) & seasonality ( I haven’t done my own research yet ) suggests it’s coming to a consolidation stage ( link ).
IN SHORT
Stop Loss: ( 2.2587 )
TP: ( 0.618 from 24 DEC ‘18 however far it pushes into it )
TECHNICAL
This is largely based on a technical situation:
Two (2) fib levels confluence
88.8% ( MAY ’18 -> DEC ‘18 )
1.27% ( MAR ’19 -> APR ‘19 )
One ( 1 ) notable Fib “Time” Level ( 1.382% FEB ’16 -> MAY ’18 ( Bullish Retrenchment ) )
Previous Structure
Mid ’18, Aug ’17 & Jun ‘15
RSI Divergence
RSI ( Daily Chart ) topped out in MAR; a further push up would be x2 divergence
100 Day MA
I haven’t fully quantified this part albeit it will likely end up ~20% above the 100 day moving average; it has certainly exceeded that ( NOV -> DEC ’18 ) albeit 20% was the top in MAY ‘18
Round #
It’s a round #
FUNDAMENTAL
There are a lot of fundamental factors affecting why this might not be a good trade. The US is looking to end waivers on Iran, Venezuela ( it’s happening ), Saudi Aramco is looking to IPO soon, etc.
On the other hand, Trump has been pretty quiet on oil prices ( BTW – I know this trade is RBOB ) & seasonality ( I haven’t done my own research yet ) suggests it’s coming to a consolidation stage ( link ).
IN SHORT
Stop Loss: ( 2.2587 )
TP: ( 0.618 from 24 DEC ‘18 however far it pushes into it )
כתב ויתור
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