Silver's Best-Case Scenarios

3 באפר׳

This is not to be taken as a trade. You may use it as part of your collection of 'research' before making your own decision, however.

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These are explicitly the "best-case scenarios" near term.

You can think of the red line as an increasing 'stop loss,' or better put, validation line. So long as the price is above the line, paths such as these are possible.


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I thought it was worth posting as it is easily invalidatable (is that a word?) in the near term with a close below $25, meaningfully below, say 24.75.

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I'll close with a quote from a friend,

"You Will Own Nothing And Be Happy,"

Please remember that my friend implies you shan't own precious metals. This is easily achieved, in part, by assigning a higher price to the metal- do expect a substantial increase over the next 10 years.

22 באפר׳

הערה

I obviously did not draw this like something existential depended on it... It is also good not to portray your strategy/methodology on your charts.

This is the main reason mine appear so simple.

That being said, we finally corrected down to the upper white line. Will Silver continue upward with the upper white line?

22 באפר׳

הערה

On FED policy.

For many many months I have been waiting for the 2nd wave of inflation. I will not disclose how I know it is coming, but we all have our reasons.

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That being said, I am semi concerned that this rally may be do (in part) to expectations for rate cuts.

I hope not.

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If the FED truly worked for the people, they would have raised rates one more time and not said they will cut until inflation is under control.

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My thesis for Silver is simple:

Elites do not want you to own it in the long run. The price has a long history of supression (over 100 years, many aspects of which I do not at all understand). Finally, the price has not caught up to the evaporated dollar.

Put simply, in 2011 I could get Silver for 35/oz in Silver Eagle form and a McDonalds McDouble for 99 cents. Today, Silver is 30$ / oz and that McDouble costs nearly 4 bucks.

Note: I do not eat McDoubles and niether should you, especially in the US.

Point is, Silver seems simply undervalued.

22 באפר׳

הערה

On a short term basis, Platinum looks the best out of the three metals if you are buying.

Again, I am hesitant to say such b/c if the FED did what it ought to, the price of Platinum could get spooked down much lower.

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If you havent sensed it now, I have been incorporating bad FED policy into my thoughts on this. The FED hasnt handled the post Covid inflation situation well at all & I do not expect it to magically change to good FED policy. However, it is possible. And the longer we do the wrong things, the more likely they'll wake (the FED)- concede- and begin to do right..

17 במאי

הערה

Silver appears to have completed the lower 'best case scenario,'

&

Platinum is up over 17% since mentioning it as an attractive metal on April 22nd (Pl = 930 USD) till today, May 17th (Pl = 1095 USD)

17 ביולי

הערה

Silver Futures (at 30.54 as of this Wednesday, July 17th, evening) ought to close this week above 31 or else our best case scenarios look real grim.

This idea is also tainted by the laughable work at the FED.

I may have mentioned it above, but the whole 6 cuts next year, to no cuts, to one cut, is such BS. It does not bother us, but it affects other trading Ops which affects us.