SMH 75% PoP & 18% profit in 2 weeks with monthly vertical

Quick 2 week vertical play:
* Bullish triangle
* Buy volume
* 14 month bullish trend

Max profit: $156
Probability of Profit: 75%
Profit Target relative to my Buying Power: 18%
Max loss with my risk management: ~$250


Req. Buy Power: $844 (max loss without management before expiry, no way to let this happen!)
Tasty IVR: 5.4
Expiry: 15 days

Buy 2 SMH May21' 230 Put
Sell 2 SMH May21' 235 Put

Credit PUT spread for 0.78cr each.

Stop/my risk management: Closing immediately if daily candle is closing BELOW the box, max loss in my calculations in this case could be 250$. Probability of loss in this way: ~12% .

Take profit strategy: 65% of max.profit in this case with auto sell order at 0.27db. Probability of profit this way: ~88%.

Of course I'll not wait until expiry in any case!


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הערה:

Note: updated trendline.
I'm not sh*t in my pants.

העסקה בוטלה באופן ידני:

Worst timing ever. S&P falling, uptrend interrupted. Minimalize loss.