Safe to forecast next drop yet?

7 בדצמ׳ 2023

Hopefully its time to take another crack at forecasting Primary wave 3 down. Wave 2 started strong and managed to retrace 98% of Primary wave 1 down. I began to have doubts we were in the right place. Still would like a drop below my green trendline here:

We finally broke well below the yellow and have created a lower low and lower high. These are early indications we may be in Intermediate wave 1 down inside of the Primary wave 3. A break above 4599 and then 4607 likely puts the market in a different place in wave theory time.
Now that Primary wave 2 is longer from a duration standpoint and larger from a movement standpoint, there are some changes to the original Primary wave 3 forecasts. I originally expected Primary wave 3 to bottom in May, but my initial projections a few weeks back placed the bottom in March/April at the latest. The movement extension percentages did not change, nor did their values as that data was predicated on Primary wave 1’s movement. Current forecast is a duration of 900-922 trading hours which would place the bottom around mid- to late-May 2024. The bottom has now risen to a area between 3600-3660. The movement and duration are based on similar wave 1/wave 2 relationships from historical wave theory data. Primary wave 1 was 461 hours long while wave 2 was 162 (as of the high on December 1). This forms a ratio of 2.8457 (461/162). Primary wave 1 moved 503.29 points down while wave 2 gained 495.608 of that back. Ratio is 1.0155 (503.29/495.608). I searched for similar datasets in which the 1:2 duration value was between 2.4 and 3.1; while the movement was between 0.95-1.08.
For additional more refined data I shrunk these values to 2.6-2.9 on the duration which provide a tighter grouping of possibilities. These historical wave pointed to an extra 300 hours of duration and bottom around 3550. While I will keep these in mind, I think my historical bottom targets have been too long and too low. I will keep the target around 911 hours near 3630.
I have taken the median models to forecast what the movement should look like to get to a bottom of 3630 over 911 trading hours. Intermediate wave 1 appears more realistic as do wave 3. This is more of a perfect world wave placement on the way down but it is based on normal historical movement for Intermediate waves inside of a wave 3. Right now wave 1 could end late this month/early in January around 4220. Wave 2 bounces up near 4475 around mid-January 2024. Intermediate wave 3 should be the big drop we have been looking for and likely drawn out over 2 months. That current bottom aligns beneath 3800. Wave 4 looks to move up toward 4000 by early April and the final bottom is end of May/early June around 3630.
At this 3630 bottom there is likely 6 months or less until the final bear market bottom. Things should blast off beginning late in 2024. Here is the current possible path moving forward:

I continue to lean on China taking Taiwan as the major driver of downward movement in the first half of 2024 but we shall see. COVID shutdown scares could rattle some industries but likely wont do enough damage this time around as most people desensitized to lockdowns and understand how quickly industries snapped back from COVID declines.

8 בדצמ׳ 2023

הערה

Elliott Wave traders may be remiss with a new high above Primary Wave 1 top (if it actually was the Wave 1 top) at 4607.07. Modified Wave theory does not strictly negate the new top as an invalidation. There have been mulitple times in history when Wave 2 moves beyond Wave 1's start price. Figures to follow in next update.