SPX: A medium term bottom is approaching soon

21 באוג׳ 2023

Last week, the bears showed strength by breaking the 4400 level. I anticipate that if we remain below the range of 4390-4400, a test of 4300-20 could follow, eventually leading to a short term rally to 4420-50. Looking at the medium term, I believe that the 4300 level presents a favorable opportunity to enter swing long positions. In terms of timing, my expected reversal window won't occur until mid-September. So, it's possible that we might experience a period of sideways movement in the range of 4300-4450 for several weeks, or we could potentially dip a bit lower to the 4200-4250 range. Either way, the zone between 4200 and 4300 seems quite attractive for swing long positions, setting the stage for a year-end rally.

22 באוג׳ 2023

הערה

So the bulls attempted, but they couldn't manage to close any hourly candle above 4400 (SPX). Additionally, there appears to be a bear flag in the smaller timeframe. If the price breaks below 4370, it would likely result in a drop to a strong support level around 4320.
As of now, resistance lies at 4400 and 4450 (which is even stronger). Between 4450 and 4500, the risk-reward ratio leans towards the short side in the short term, while 4300 offers a favorable opportunity for going long. It's worth noting that the cycle day on 8/18 once again worked effectively, resulting in almost 100-point rally from the low. Looking ahead, my next cycle low date is 8/25. I intend to go long if we experience a substantial drop around that time.

23 באוג׳ 2023

הערה

The bulls did a good job by breaking above 4400 and hitting my strong resistance level of 4450 today. Additionally, there was a spike to 4460 after hours due to NVDA's positive earnings report. I have exited most of my long positions that were entered last week and have begun to scale in short positions at 4475 ES.
While some of my data indicated that we may have already reached the low point of August last Friday, I believe that the market might experience some choppiness at this level before potentially establishing a lower low in September.

24 באוג׳ 2023

הערה

Shorting 4460 SPX seems to be an easy decision, with a rapid 70-point drop observed thus far. The range of 4380-4400 serves as a pivot point. I've covered half of my short position at this point, while keeping the remaining half as runners with SL at BE. If goes lower, a backtest towards the 4320-4350 range is likely. If this occurs, I plan to cover all my short positions and switch to long, based on my analysis of the cycle low around 8/24-25.

25 באוג׳ 2023

הערה

The target was achieved around 4350 SPX (the low of the day came very close). At that point, I went long, resulting in a rapid 70-point rally. I have taken some profits and retained a runner for next week, setting a stop loss at breakeven. The recent success of the cycle low days has been remarkable, and my next favorable entry day for long positions will be 8/29-30.
In the short term, I am trading the market's choppiness, while maintaining a bias towards a lower low that could potentially arise in the next 2-3 weeks. This scenario could present an excellent long-term buying opportunity.

29 באוג׳ 2023

הערה

Nice rally from 4350 on the SPX. It would be greedy not to take profit here. Around 4500 on the SPX is a pretty strong resistance; however, I am bullish until Labor Day, so I will stay flat for now. If there is a significant drop to 4400 on the SPX, I might scalp long positions again.

29 באוג׳ 2023

הערה

It is wise to avoid entering counter trades on a trend day like today. Here is my plan for the very short term (from now to Labor Day): The pivot point is currently at 4450/60, which needs to hold for any potential pullback today or tomorrow in order for the bulls to maintain momentum and potentially backtest the range of 4500-4530. If this level is breached, a back test of 4400 is likely.
If there is no pullback and the rally continues tomorrow to 4520-4530, I would consider entering a short position with a stop loss above 4550 and a target of 4460 and 4400.

1 בספט׳ 2023

הערה

I'm scaling out of my short positions at this point due to the long weekend. I'll leave some runners with a stop loss at breakeven; it's a risk free trade for me now. I'll assess how September unfolds, but my bias for September is for a rally in the first half and weakness in the second half. I'll update my plan when I see a clearer path. Have a great weekend!

6 בספט׳ 2023

הערה

My target for the short swing trade has been reached. I have exited my short position and scaled into a long position around 4450 on the SPX. I will provide an update for this trade in my new post - the September trade plan.