S&P 500 and Recession?
Though it seems like we're currently in correction wave A and would like to stay neutral short to mid-term until confirmed wave 1 appears, the gap and bearish engulfing candle make it seem like the slide will continue earlier than expected within Q1 -- or maybe it will suddenly "recover" fast by next week, depends on the whales tbh, but lemme know your thoughts down the comments below.
Anyway just sharing an interesting pattern in S&P 500 coinciding with the major downturns in the market and recessions in the past, and might interest those who want to "time" the markets.
As mentioned in my trading blog, ceteris paribus, overall I'm bearish in the markets in the next decade or so considering the stagnant growth of world economies. The only thing that can push that up is if we're finally able to start mining in space and utilize AI technology while "smoothly" transitioning displaced human workers into more relevant roles.
Guideline:
SELL
- divergence in RSI and chart on -61.8 fib or higher (-61.8 becomes new 0 fib) and RSI above 70 for sell
- sell up to around 0 fib of prior period and RSI below 30 (then soft buy-soft sell) OR
- sell up to near -61.8 of current period (if there is prior bearish period & fib) or -100 of current period (if bearish reversal)
SOFT BUY
- RSI below 30
- price below -38.2 fib of prior period
- buy up to near -61.8 of current period
SOFT SELL
- 2nd RSI above 70
- price above -38.2 fib of current period (if prior fib is also bullish) or near -100 fib
- sell up to near 0 fib of current period
BUY
- divergence in RSI and chart on 0 (-61.8 fib or higher of prior bullish period) and RSI below 30 for buy
- buy up to around -100 fib of prior period and RSI above 70 (then soft sell-soft buyl) OR
- buy up to near -61.8 of current period (if there is prior bullish period & fib) or -100 of current period (if bullish reversal)
SOFT SELL
- RSI above 70
- price below -38.2 fib of current period
- sell up to near -61.8 of prior period
SOFT BUY
- 2nd RSI below 30
- price at 0 fib of current period
- sell above -38.2 fib of current period
Rules:
1. For reversals, plot fibonacci either from prior period -100 or -61.8 fib level (depending on where price is nearest) down to prior period 0 fibonacci level
2. If price continues to trend up or down, way past the -100 fibonacci level, plot that as new 0 fibonacci level and add a hype icon (champagne glass or caution)
3. RSI is set at 10-70-30 on the weekly chart only
Anyway just sharing an interesting pattern in S&P 500 coinciding with the major downturns in the market and recessions in the past, and might interest those who want to "time" the markets.
As mentioned in my trading blog, ceteris paribus, overall I'm bearish in the markets in the next decade or so considering the stagnant growth of world economies. The only thing that can push that up is if we're finally able to start mining in space and utilize AI technology while "smoothly" transitioning displaced human workers into more relevant roles.
Guideline:
SELL
- divergence in RSI and chart on -61.8 fib or higher (-61.8 becomes new 0 fib) and RSI above 70 for sell
- sell up to around 0 fib of prior period and RSI below 30 (then soft buy-soft sell) OR
- sell up to near -61.8 of current period (if there is prior bearish period & fib) or -100 of current period (if bearish reversal)
SOFT BUY
- RSI below 30
- price below -38.2 fib of prior period
- buy up to near -61.8 of current period
SOFT SELL
- 2nd RSI above 70
- price above -38.2 fib of current period (if prior fib is also bullish) or near -100 fib
- sell up to near 0 fib of current period
BUY
- divergence in RSI and chart on 0 (-61.8 fib or higher of prior bullish period) and RSI below 30 for buy
- buy up to around -100 fib of prior period and RSI above 70 (then soft sell-soft buyl) OR
- buy up to near -61.8 of current period (if there is prior bullish period & fib) or -100 of current period (if bullish reversal)
SOFT SELL
- RSI above 70
- price below -38.2 fib of current period
- sell up to near -61.8 of prior period
SOFT BUY
- 2nd RSI below 30
- price at 0 fib of current period
- sell above -38.2 fib of current period
Rules:
1. For reversals, plot fibonacci either from prior period -100 or -61.8 fib level (depending on where price is nearest) down to prior period 0 fibonacci level
2. If price continues to trend up or down, way past the -100 fibonacci level, plot that as new 0 fibonacci level and add a hype icon (champagne glass or caution)
3. RSI is set at 10-70-30 on the weekly chart only
כתב ויתור
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