Market crash analysis + why

We broke out of the rising wedge a couple of
weeks ago and we will have to wait if we can break back into the rising wedge. A head and shoulders pattern is forming on the chart.


•Almost every
indicator suggests that we are overvalued.

•We printed a ton of money during the COVID-19 period. When we had the 2020 march crash, the stock market recoved insanely fast, even when the economy was falling. The recovery happened because we printed so much money to support the company's (not because the businesses were performing great. 1 million+ people dead? No problem the market goes up 30%.
Millions of people getting unemployed in the US and the rest of the world? Not a problem, the market goes up another 30%. Almost every business was experiencing massive losses while their stock price was skyrocketing.

•The inflation of the USD is higher then in
2008. (5.4% at the moment)

•evergrande is already starting to miss their payments. When
evergrande defaults, the everything bubble
could definitely burst. A gigantic flash sell will happen when Evergrande defaults. Evergrande still has to pay 305 billion USD. They haven't even paid of 1% of their debt.

So who are the biggest bagholders of the 305B in bad bonds? -->

There are several American and Canadian banks that Evergrande ows money to:
First we've got the Royale Bank of Canada which has 46B in evergrande bonds with a market cap of 144B.

If you were wondering why there was that weird after hours - the stock dropped 64% during AH in one day, but then they fixed the "glitch" and the price went back up.
RBC looked worthless and this was just the real view of the bank's financial state when the bonds hit zero.



•canadian tv reminding people that bank
deposits are ensured.
•billionaire investors have a lot of cash on
their hands.
•palantir warns people of a black swan event.
•energy crisis in China.
•historic records amount of margin.
•Eliotte waves suggest that a big crash is
going to happen.

•October 25th looks really bad
We might go down 35-50% to big support
levels (If not 75%).
•US debt issues

Conclusion: the TA looks bad and so does everything going in the world right now. If this ends up happening it will be a fantastic buying opportunity. The S&p500 could go 20% higher to arround $5000, but a crash is inevitable. If it doesn't happen this year, then it will probably happen in the next 2 years. And do you really want to risk a 20% return when the market could fall 50% or more? You can cash out now and buy back 2x the amount of the shares after the crash. And get 2x the amount of shares that you could buy now.