מדד S&P 500לונג
Stock Market during Mid-Term Election and Inflation Analysis
This is a historic timeline showing the following:
Visuals:
1. Mid-term election years (Green Vertical Lines)
2. Peak Inflation (Yellow Vertical Lines)
3. Recession (Grey box)
Charts:
1. Inflation CPI
2. FedFundsRate
3. Unemployment Rate
You can note that there were two similar instances where inflation was getting higher during mid-term elections (1974 and 1980). In an inflationary environment, most likely the S&P bottoms when the inflation (CPI) has peaked. However, in 1980, the S&P went higher after mid-term elections despite inflation rising and having not peaked.
So the S&P can bottom anywhere from June to October (possibly at $3200- Fib lower level), then rally after mid-term elections. If post-mid-term election, the unemployment rate starts going up, it can lead to a recession in the upcoming years.
Feedback welcome!
References:
1. List of recessions: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_recessions_in_the_United_States
2. Mid-term elections: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_midterm_election
3. Stock Market post Mid-Term elections: usbank.com/investing/financial-perspectives/market-news/stock-market-performance-after-midterm-elections.html
Visuals:
1. Mid-term election years (Green Vertical Lines)
2. Peak Inflation (Yellow Vertical Lines)
3. Recession (Grey box)
Charts:
1. Inflation CPI
2. FedFundsRate
3. Unemployment Rate
You can note that there were two similar instances where inflation was getting higher during mid-term elections (1974 and 1980). In an inflationary environment, most likely the S&P bottoms when the inflation (CPI) has peaked. However, in 1980, the S&P went higher after mid-term elections despite inflation rising and having not peaked.
So the S&P can bottom anywhere from June to October (possibly at $3200- Fib lower level), then rally after mid-term elections. If post-mid-term election, the unemployment rate starts going up, it can lead to a recession in the upcoming years.
Feedback welcome!
References:
1. List of recessions: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_recessions_in_the_United_States
2. Mid-term elections: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_midterm_election
3. Stock Market post Mid-Term elections: usbank.com/investing/financial-perspectives/market-news/stock-market-performance-after-midterm-elections.html
כתב ויתור
המידע והפרסומים אינם אמורים להיות, ואינם מהווים, עצות פיננסיות, השקעות, מסחר או סוגים אחרים של עצות או המלצות שסופקו או מאושרים על ידי TradingView. קרא עוד בתנאים וההגבלות.