S&P 500 Rising Wedge into the next 2 Fed days

7 בפבר׳ 2023

The markets think the Fed is being dovish. Its not that. It's that the Fed is not being hawkish. So what does a desperate market do? It pumps on the fact the Fed isn't hostile. This will just give Powell more cannon fodder to keep pumping rates. The next Fed meeting is expected to be .25 more. The 3rd Fed meeting this year was another .25 but sentiment changed that the Fed won't raise rates any more than that. So we pump into it and I'm guessing that if the Fed raises rates in May then the markets will route

9 בפבר׳ 2023

הערה

Powell: A "couple of years" before Fed nears end of balance sheet decline.

"It will be a couple of years" before the balance sheet reduction process concludes, Powell said.

So basically they are out of the market for 18-36 more months. Which tracks with my expectation that they are not done raising rates and those rates will stay relatively flat around 5.6% for the better part of those 2 years. They are using Germany's 1970's playbook against stagflation. Germany at the time lifted their Lombard rate high enough to make real rates positive and they were able to protect the country against stagflation.

9 בפבר׳ 2023

הערה

I'll post a longer projection of where the markets will go for 2024-2025