Market Outlook - July 2020: Rally re-imagined

Changing with times, "Monthly Outlook" is a new title, changed from "Elliott Wave..." since emphasis has been more on other technical indicators for awhile. Elliott Wave remains one, of many, indicators considered. Being in vogue, a re-imagined title also re-imagines the rally since 3/23/2020. What's not re-imagined are new indicators at the chart's bottom for PPO (from Public Library at TradingView) and Reward Quotient (RQ) from a colleague I respect immensely.

A healthy seasonal pause for June is nearly done as we head into July. A more favorable path is expected based on:

• Support at SMA50 and SMA200
  Fibonacci support at .618 retace of 2934.49
  Healthy pullback of RSI(14) while PPO and Signal are above 0
  Favorable positioning between two long term trendlines. Upper last hit in 2018, lower is from 2011-2019 lows pierced by 2020 decline
  Percent of stocks above 20 day MA (MMTW) below 25. Contra indicator where lower is better.
  Large U.S.Treasury balance of $1.59 Trillion as of last Thursday's report. Just waiting to be spent and finding its way into banks, etc.
  Elliott Wave move Wave 5 from 2020 low Wave 4 is favorable (long term).
  

Further decline for June's final days or into early July should be contained before the rally continues, no re-imagining.