Do you expect a crash? Or again rallies?
Market review for September 16, 2019
#SP500
Last week for the SP500 index ended up and closed around 3010. Publication of consumer sentiment in the US on Friday exceeded forecasts. According to preliminary estimates, consumer sentiment in the University of Michigan in the US rose to 92 in September 2019 from 89.8 in the previous month and above. market consensus forecast of 90.9. Also, the consumer expectations index rose to 82.4 in September from 79.9 in the previous month; and the indicator of current economic conditions rose to 106.9 from 105.3. Inflation expectations for the coming year rose to a four-month high of 2.8 percent in September from 2.7 percent in August; while the 5-year forecast fell to 2.3 percent from 2.6 percent.
“Consumer sentiment showed a slight rebound from a sharp fall in August, marking the third lowest level after the Trump election. Despite the fact that growth occurred both in current and expected economic conditions, the rebound in early September was not widespread by age or income subgroups, as it only fell among consumers under the age of 45 and among households with incomes at the top thirds - these two groups account for about half of all expenses. Data shows that consumers expect the Fed to cut interest rates next week with a net decline in interest rates more often than they are currently expected than ever since the depths of the Great Recession in February 2009. These expectations are likely to reduce the impact of spending on a quarter point reduction in the rate, but if the rates remain unchanged, they can increase the negative reaction of consumers. Concerns about the impact of tariffs on the domestic economy also increased in early September, when 38% of all consumers became spontaneous; the United States cited the negative impact of tariffs, the highest percentage since March 2018. Those who negatively mentioned tariffs also held more negative views on the overall economic outlook, and also expected inflation and unemployment to increase next year. Although a recession is not expected next year, a revival of personal consumption is also not expected. The forecast for consumption is a slower but positive growth that will extend it for another year, ”said Richard Curtin, chief economist at Consumer Survey.
On Monday, the futures market opened with a gap down and almost leveled the movement of last week. This is an occasion to think about the upcoming week and the direction of the market in the coming days. On Monday and Tuesday, the market is unlikely to be able to make any serious movements since there will be a FED meeting on Wednesday 18 September regarding the decision to reduce the interest rate from the current level of 2.25% to 2%. The estimated interest rate for today is 1.88% and is in the price range of 1.75% - 2%. FED reports forecast 0.25 basis points decline with a 81.9% probability
skrinshoter.ru/i/160919/rM5mVSH5.png
skrinshoter.ru/i/160919/jQijWQbT.png
Key support / resistance levels for September 16, 2019
Resistance
Monthlyly volatility
2975
Weekly volatility
3028
Daily volatility
3002
Support
Daily volatility
2973
Weekly volatility
2948
Monthlyly volatility
2935
On Thursday and Friday, the NASDAQ Exchange Delta Volume was in the positive zone, but this did not cause serious upward movements, which in turn suggests a further decrease or at least lateral movement for today.
skrinshoter.ru/i/160919/ciWfazn4.png
When comparing the cumulative delta on the futures of the DowJones 30, SP500 and NASDAQ 100 indices
the downward dynamics of the delta by the DowJones 30 index is clearly traced, which in turn can signal a possible decrease. However, the FED meeting still prevents large participants from entering positions in the next two days.
skrinshoter.ru/i/160919/3bAXwDE9.png
The recommendation for today will be a cautious sale to the nearest support levels with intraday fixing of transactions.
#SP500
Last week for the SP500 index ended up and closed around 3010. Publication of consumer sentiment in the US on Friday exceeded forecasts. According to preliminary estimates, consumer sentiment in the University of Michigan in the US rose to 92 in September 2019 from 89.8 in the previous month and above. market consensus forecast of 90.9. Also, the consumer expectations index rose to 82.4 in September from 79.9 in the previous month; and the indicator of current economic conditions rose to 106.9 from 105.3. Inflation expectations for the coming year rose to a four-month high of 2.8 percent in September from 2.7 percent in August; while the 5-year forecast fell to 2.3 percent from 2.6 percent.
“Consumer sentiment showed a slight rebound from a sharp fall in August, marking the third lowest level after the Trump election. Despite the fact that growth occurred both in current and expected economic conditions, the rebound in early September was not widespread by age or income subgroups, as it only fell among consumers under the age of 45 and among households with incomes at the top thirds - these two groups account for about half of all expenses. Data shows that consumers expect the Fed to cut interest rates next week with a net decline in interest rates more often than they are currently expected than ever since the depths of the Great Recession in February 2009. These expectations are likely to reduce the impact of spending on a quarter point reduction in the rate, but if the rates remain unchanged, they can increase the negative reaction of consumers. Concerns about the impact of tariffs on the domestic economy also increased in early September, when 38% of all consumers became spontaneous; the United States cited the negative impact of tariffs, the highest percentage since March 2018. Those who negatively mentioned tariffs also held more negative views on the overall economic outlook, and also expected inflation and unemployment to increase next year. Although a recession is not expected next year, a revival of personal consumption is also not expected. The forecast for consumption is a slower but positive growth that will extend it for another year, ”said Richard Curtin, chief economist at Consumer Survey.
On Monday, the futures market opened with a gap down and almost leveled the movement of last week. This is an occasion to think about the upcoming week and the direction of the market in the coming days. On Monday and Tuesday, the market is unlikely to be able to make any serious movements since there will be a FED meeting on Wednesday 18 September regarding the decision to reduce the interest rate from the current level of 2.25% to 2%. The estimated interest rate for today is 1.88% and is in the price range of 1.75% - 2%. FED reports forecast 0.25 basis points decline with a 81.9% probability
skrinshoter.ru/i/160919/rM5mVSH5.png
skrinshoter.ru/i/160919/jQijWQbT.png
Key support / resistance levels for September 16, 2019
Resistance
Monthlyly volatility
2975
Weekly volatility
3028
Daily volatility
3002
Support
Daily volatility
2973
Weekly volatility
2948
Monthlyly volatility
2935
On Thursday and Friday, the NASDAQ Exchange Delta Volume was in the positive zone, but this did not cause serious upward movements, which in turn suggests a further decrease or at least lateral movement for today.
skrinshoter.ru/i/160919/ciWfazn4.png
When comparing the cumulative delta on the futures of the DowJones 30, SP500 and NASDAQ 100 indices
the downward dynamics of the delta by the DowJones 30 index is clearly traced, which in turn can signal a possible decrease. However, the FED meeting still prevents large participants from entering positions in the next two days.
skrinshoter.ru/i/160919/3bAXwDE9.png
The recommendation for today will be a cautious sale to the nearest support levels with intraday fixing of transactions.
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