SPX ABCD Extension of CD Puts as at 1700 around DEC 2020

Technical Reasons
- 200 MA right above (resistance)
- multiple converging resistances
- 0.618 retrace completed (bear market rallies exhaust here)
- ABCD extension suggests that the CD leg terminates at a 127.2% to 161.8% expansion of the BC leg

Fundamental Reasons
- you already know them
- we are unprepared for wave 2
- elections will be postponed
- credit downgrades will occur between now and DEC
- retail has been absorbing the institutional selling in the last month of SPX being pinned between 2700 - 3000, look at the explosion in accounts at retail brokerage houses (1920's ring a bell?) and the fact that robinhood users bag holding F, GE, airlines, cruise lines, etc. (google robintrack to see for yourself)

הערה:

Here is the NQ weekly.

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Zoom in to the daily.

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ES 4 HR - not outisde the realm of possibility it tags upper channel first.

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Just spotted a invs h&s...

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4HR Chart

If bulls fail to defend this inverse h&s right shoulder, the fix is in and it's time to start piling on aggressively in preparation for the channel break and the start of wave 3 down.

הערה:

Popping a right shoulder using a rising wedge, genius!

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Here's the NQ today.

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SPX 4HR chart - here's that pesky h&s we popped from, already throwing back to test.

I have a feeling it will not hold.

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ES 4HR - bulls had the easiest invs h&s layup and flinched because they're saturated and exhausted.

Looking for that channel support next. I am confident here to take more aggressive fading of every rally retrace attempt during the day.

עסקה פעילה:

Short from 3008 - playing the 61.8% wedge pullback rejection.

הערה:

This better not break to the upside...

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Double hourly print on bbands exhaustion.

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Playing out.

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Rising wedge headfake break out for bulls, right into overbought upper bollinger bands on 2 & 3 std. dev.