If trump wins I expect a market crash, around -8% from the current index price to summer 2015 lows, around 1920. To enter a short position though, I will wait for the MACD on weekly to send a sell signal, at which point the loss for the markets could extend further than 8%. I will make sure to keep an eye on 200DMA because a new president means that many long-term investors will be shifting their portfolio composition.
הערה:
As expected the markets crashed after Trump was sure to be president. Pre-market though and after his somewhat re-assuring victory speech markets begun rebounding. I am not sure a rally will follow as this rebound could have been caused by circuit brakers, filling of hedging positions and even short squeeze. I will not trade the SP500 in the upcoming days until the dust settles and try to catch a possible reversal on either side.
