Why I am not in a rush to be bullish

28 ביוני 2020

When looking at higher resolution charts, let's say 4hr and higher (longer) one sign I look for in my Fancy Triple Moving Averages [BigBitsIO] indicator is the alignment of the 50, 100 and 200 moving averages relative to each other to spot potential relatively mid to long term trend changes. I often also look at the mid band on the Fancy Bollinger Bands [BigBitsIO] indicator to get an idea of even higher (longer, like 3D and 1W) resolution charts.

1. Recently Bitcoin has had a major realignment on the 4hr chart moving averages resulting in the bearish alignment. By bearish alignment I mean the mid-bollinger band is below the 50 MA, which is below the 100 MA which itself is below the 200 MA. This has not occured since early March of 2020. Just before the large crash. However, I am not confident enough to announce the idea as a short because the 200 MA is still moving upwards, similar to the pre-cursor drop in Bitcoin in February, see:

What I am looking for to consider this mid to long term short would be the proper downward alignmeng of all moving averages, such as in March, see:

2. The SPX500USD is also coming around to looking very similar to the Bitcoin chart mentioned above. Given a recent close alignment between the two during times of volatility it is well worth taking a close look at them together in my opinion. The reason I am so closely watching these together also extends to their similarities back in late February, see:

Currently, the chart is reminding me a lot of that from late February, see:

I personally sort of expect a bit more consolidation for the SPX500USD in it's current descending triangle:

Given the recent increase in #COVID19 cases I'm inclined to think this is a shorting opportunity if there is a bounce in consolidation. Given ulimited QE, I'd probably rather wait for an excellent long opportunity when indicators on higher resolutions point to a potential shift to upward momentum at lower prices.