So after softness the majority of the day we finally got to the main event. The fed, and what they think for their June policy meeting. And literally nothing changed.
Outside of that we're starting to see riskier assets soften up and moves back into havens (Including tech stocks). With yields being so low names like AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, and MSFT are where the money has been piling into when there's uncertainty. And we're seeing follow through on that from yesterday. With small caps, financials, and transports getting a good roadhouse kick to the face to print a confirmed reversal.
SPY on the other hand is still unresolved. We DID close below the key level of $320/$3200 after the algos tried to keep us there the majority of the day. Technically that's significant in my opinion. But at the same time we could have just printed a bull flag/consolidation before we take a shot at the last gap up above. There was no resolution today. There was very little large money participation today which was telling in itself. The market doesn't know where to go. The next move will be news dependent.
On ES we did break the H&S neckline after some EKG action but we did close below it. Now when we're in this quasi bull market bearish patterns play out less often than normal. So keep that in mind. On SPY we printed a bearish engulfing on the daily, but we'd really need NDX to participate for any meaningful "correction" or pullback to take place. If not SPY will be buoyed by the large names. But again, my leading indicators are leading to the downside. So we'll see.
Fed day
Directly on the uptrend line
Little different on the daily, we're still neutral in the channel. Note the bearish engulfing, but also volume was still meh
Little clearer on SPX, found support on the 5 period EMA which is generally bullish
SPX needs to break that trendline from last summer lows. And notice there's a lot of room down below. Those gaps have bears salivating
But notice how it just worked off it's overbought reading by running in place? With the BBands tight like that we're in for a move somewhere here shortly. You all know my bias
This is pretty self explanatory. But notice where the 200 period MA is. That almost perfectly corresponds with a gap and also was a key resistance on the way up
IWM with fib extensions. Notice where the 1.618 fib line is.. Also note the .236 and .382 fibs correspond with tops of gaps
Short term target is $134/135. 200 period intraday MA, trend line support, and bottom of a gap
Looking pretty textbook
VIX showing a reversal, but weak so far. But importantly we did close above resistance again today
XLF? Whacked
Transports? Whacked. But note that it gapped under it's support but tagged it's 13 period EMA
DXY - Still not clear on this. Almost a 5% down move from the start. Anyone have any ideas?
DJI breaking support. Also has some pretty serious gaps to fill
NDX actually starting to look a little unhealthy as well
Especially with that last hourly
Havens signalling risk off with all having pretty big days.
Silver showing a pretty healthy reversal
Gold almost fully retracing. How bout that bear trap a couple days ago huh?
Bonds absolutely signalling a risk off sentiment
Going off of my leading indicators we're starting to see a pullback/correction. But tech needs to participate for it to be meaningful/broad based. I wouldn't be surprised to see DJI, and RUT/IWM correct a little deeper and SPX/SPY correct modestly. The next catalyst either way is going to be news induced and it will determine whether or not we fill the gap at $333 or $286. I'm still picking by my top call from yesterday but that thesis is a lot stronger if we see a rug pull instead of this volume-less move downwards. But at the same time people were still buying the dip today even though algos weren't (besides around $3200). Note that. All it takes is a 20-30 point gap down to trap all these people.
Btw. I've been getting a lot of support in the form of likes and comments on these posts, and i wanted to say i do appreciate it. I do this because i like to and the affirmations make it that much better knowing that people enjoy it.
As always keep your head on a swivel and happy trading. Let me know if you're seeing something different.
This is not trading advice. This is my own personal opinion based on my own personal TA. You are responsible for your own trades.
Outside of that we're starting to see riskier assets soften up and moves back into havens (Including tech stocks). With yields being so low names like AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, and MSFT are where the money has been piling into when there's uncertainty. And we're seeing follow through on that from yesterday. With small caps, financials, and transports getting a good roadhouse kick to the face to print a confirmed reversal.
SPY on the other hand is still unresolved. We DID close below the key level of $320/$3200 after the algos tried to keep us there the majority of the day. Technically that's significant in my opinion. But at the same time we could have just printed a bull flag/consolidation before we take a shot at the last gap up above. There was no resolution today. There was very little large money participation today which was telling in itself. The market doesn't know where to go. The next move will be news dependent.
On ES we did break the H&S neckline after some EKG action but we did close below it. Now when we're in this quasi bull market bearish patterns play out less often than normal. So keep that in mind. On SPY we printed a bearish engulfing on the daily, but we'd really need NDX to participate for any meaningful "correction" or pullback to take place. If not SPY will be buoyed by the large names. But again, my leading indicators are leading to the downside. So we'll see.
Fed day
Directly on the uptrend line
Little different on the daily, we're still neutral in the channel. Note the bearish engulfing, but also volume was still meh
Little clearer on SPX, found support on the 5 period EMA which is generally bullish
SPX needs to break that trendline from last summer lows. And notice there's a lot of room down below. Those gaps have bears salivating
But notice how it just worked off it's overbought reading by running in place? With the BBands tight like that we're in for a move somewhere here shortly. You all know my bias
This is pretty self explanatory. But notice where the 200 period MA is. That almost perfectly corresponds with a gap and also was a key resistance on the way up
IWM with fib extensions. Notice where the 1.618 fib line is.. Also note the .236 and .382 fibs correspond with tops of gaps
Short term target is $134/135. 200 period intraday MA, trend line support, and bottom of a gap
Looking pretty textbook
VIX showing a reversal, but weak so far. But importantly we did close above resistance again today
XLF? Whacked
Transports? Whacked. But note that it gapped under it's support but tagged it's 13 period EMA
DXY - Still not clear on this. Almost a 5% down move from the start. Anyone have any ideas?
DJI breaking support. Also has some pretty serious gaps to fill
NDX actually starting to look a little unhealthy as well
Especially with that last hourly
Havens signalling risk off with all having pretty big days.
Silver showing a pretty healthy reversal
Gold almost fully retracing. How bout that bear trap a couple days ago huh?
Bonds absolutely signalling a risk off sentiment
Going off of my leading indicators we're starting to see a pullback/correction. But tech needs to participate for it to be meaningful/broad based. I wouldn't be surprised to see DJI, and RUT/IWM correct a little deeper and SPX/SPY correct modestly. The next catalyst either way is going to be news induced and it will determine whether or not we fill the gap at $333 or $286. I'm still picking by my top call from yesterday but that thesis is a lot stronger if we see a rug pull instead of this volume-less move downwards. But at the same time people were still buying the dip today even though algos weren't (besides around $3200). Note that. All it takes is a 20-30 point gap down to trap all these people.
Btw. I've been getting a lot of support in the form of likes and comments on these posts, and i wanted to say i do appreciate it. I do this because i like to and the affirmations make it that much better knowing that people enjoy it.
As always keep your head on a swivel and happy trading. Let me know if you're seeing something different.
This is not trading advice. This is my own personal opinion based on my own personal TA. You are responsible for your own trades.
הערה:
ES Hourly RSI is oversold, expect a bounce at open or directly before open. If we don't get that something is actually really wrong in the markets eyes.
הערה:
If this doesn't hold we're on our way to $302. I was expecting a rug pull but damn. If we do find support here expect a bounce into close.
הערה:
We MIGHT be bottoming here for the day. Operative word "Might".
Targets if we keep sliding: We'd have to break $310, but if we do targets are $305, and then $302.