ContraryTrader

Spy Intra

שורט
ContraryTrader מעודכן   
AMEX:SPY   SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST
Still in Wyckoff distribution on daily chart.
Ask yourself this, What is the difference between Distribution and Consolidation?
If you don't know the answer you don't know how to read what's going on here.

Here are some dates where the Spy was distributing before the big dump
11/5/2021 - 11/23/2021
12/28/2021 - 1/2/2022
5/27/2022 - 6/8/2022
11/11/2022 - 12/15/2022

How I've learned to spot it is using
Candle structure + RSI +MACD..

So go over those dates I've mentioned on your daily time frame and see if you can spot a pattern? 😉

I was looking at the global exchanges and they all look ready for a bearish reversal.

DAX - distribution same as spy

HSI Hangseng - 3 black crows candle on
weekly

FTSE - Hang man candle on daily + Top of rising wedge

NIKKEI - distribution in supply area

Now let's take a look at the spy , bounced friday off of 404 low. Some thing I notice was that immediately at the open XLV (Second biggest sector) was being pumped and also XLP which is a value sector got alot of action. These are defensive sector that benefited alot in early 2022 when there was a rotation out of growth. Alot of the big names in these sectors are listed on the DOW which played a big reason on them going green. Was it a one off play for a day or the start of something? Also what kept spy from going lower was QQQ holding its 21ema at 298.

If you look at the price action here from
2/10 -2/17 on your smaller time frame you'll see a inverted cup was formed; Fridays bounce off the lows may have been a handle.🤔 same look on qqq

Bounced off 21ema but closed under 20sma around 408.30 and strong resistance of 407.60 dating back from summer 2022.

If we break over 408.50 , then 412 resistance is in play. If we drop our supports are 406 (21ema) , 404 (Friday low). Below 404 and 400 here we come.

My long term target is still 390 ish or 200sma.
If we break below 390 then things will get nasty.








If u Placed a Fib on SPX not spy; Using February's high and Oct low and you'll come up with 4044 as the next support. SPX held that support Friday
הערה:
Premarket Spy sitting on 200sma 1hour.. if you aren't short wait for a drop below that for a short entry, Target 400..

Vix gapped up but it is outside its daily Bollinger band, I'll be looking for the market/spy to bounce around 399-400.

Wouldn't surprise me if the bought commodities, and energy today
הערה:
399 spy bounce.

Qqq 294 bounce..


U expect a bounce but I also expect a retest tomorrow

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