Jobless Claims Rise on Thursday, Markets on Edge
Global futures are mixed on Wednesday morning, while the US majors are extending losses, after an ugly session yesterday, which saw the Nasdaq (QQQ) lose the critical neckline, after losing the 50 day MA earlier on in the week. The SPY is poised to open at the 50 day MA around 380.70, which has acted as strong support as recently as Jan 29th. If we see a break below the 50 day MA today, we could be looking at massive downside to the Jan 29th low of around 368, which is sitting just above the 100 day MA (367.24). If we see a strong bounce off of, I don't know, more jawboning by Powell today maybe, we may see another test of the 21 day EMA at 385.77.
In volatility, we saw the Vix catch a nice bid off of yesterday's weakness to a 27 handle, and as I mentioned in our live analysis, the Vix is on course for another spike in the immediate term, potentially to the 37 level, or higher. We'll have to closely monitor the remarks by Powell, and the media narratives around the stimulus as well.
On the data front, Jobless Claims came in hot with 745k claims vs the 725k expected. But, continuing claims fell to 4.29 Million from 4.42 Million last week. No notable response by markets as yet, but wait for the open, and we should get a better sense of sentiment. I wish the Put/Call would give an indication of a shift in sentiment, but it appears to be skewed perpetually.
With the 10Y yield at 1.47% and holding firm, we really shouldn't be seeing a sharp risk on move like the one we saw on Monday, but rather a cautious tone in anticipation of a disappointment from Powell's speech. If we get talk of YCC, and Powell says he's going to start buying long dated treasuries to keep rates low (changing the rules on bears again), I'll hit the fucking roof.
Best of luck out there today guys, and trade safe. Our live analysis begins at 9:30AM. Cheers, Michael.
*I am/ we are currently holding positions in UVXY, HUV, HQD, QID.
In volatility, we saw the Vix catch a nice bid off of yesterday's weakness to a 27 handle, and as I mentioned in our live analysis, the Vix is on course for another spike in the immediate term, potentially to the 37 level, or higher. We'll have to closely monitor the remarks by Powell, and the media narratives around the stimulus as well.
On the data front, Jobless Claims came in hot with 745k claims vs the 725k expected. But, continuing claims fell to 4.29 Million from 4.42 Million last week. No notable response by markets as yet, but wait for the open, and we should get a better sense of sentiment. I wish the Put/Call would give an indication of a shift in sentiment, but it appears to be skewed perpetually.
With the 10Y yield at 1.47% and holding firm, we really shouldn't be seeing a sharp risk on move like the one we saw on Monday, but rather a cautious tone in anticipation of a disappointment from Powell's speech. If we get talk of YCC, and Powell says he's going to start buying long dated treasuries to keep rates low (changing the rules on bears again), I'll hit the fucking roof.
Best of luck out there today guys, and trade safe. Our live analysis begins at 9:30AM. Cheers, Michael.
*I am/ we are currently holding positions in UVXY, HUV, HQD, QID.
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