Thanks "andrewunknown" www.tradingview.com/u/andrewunknown/
Just wanted to take a look at where a normal business cycle would take the markets. Historically, bear market corrections happen at a rate which is 3-times the bull market recovery. The slopes of the two corrections and recoveries over the past decade seem to be in line. We appear to be tracking a similar recovery slope.
If this was "near" the top (this is not a top call), a normal correction (circa 2000's slope), we would see the market correct back to a level ~1210 on the S&P, bottoming around Aug 2015. If we have use the slope from 2008 corrections, be would hit around ~1150 S&P, June 2014. I think the first is more likely as we haven't had enough time to build up a bubble market.
(Unless maybe inflation turns on, but QE should effectively keep this in check)
(Failure in China could be a good catalyst to start a health down trend).
Just wanted to take a look at where a normal business cycle would take the markets. Historically, bear market corrections happen at a rate which is 3-times the bull market recovery. The slopes of the two corrections and recoveries over the past decade seem to be in line. We appear to be tracking a similar recovery slope.
If this was "near" the top (this is not a top call), a normal correction (circa 2000's slope), we would see the market correct back to a level ~1210 on the S&P, bottoming around Aug 2015. If we have use the slope from 2008 corrections, be would hit around ~1150 S&P, June 2014. I think the first is more likely as we haven't had enough time to build up a bubble market.
(Unless maybe inflation turns on, but QE should effectively keep this in check)
(Failure in China could be a good catalyst to start a health down trend).