SPY - Apres Powell & The Double Dip
מעודכן
Jackson Hole, CPI, and FOMC are rearview.
Are you a Dip Buyer - with Powell stating the FED is on the low side of the
Target Range?
That is a suicide, assured.
See Chart - the obnoxious Bots are far more intelligent than us and gaining
further ground exponentially. We closely observe their programs daily and
make adjustments among our small group of live traders each and every day.
That Chart is simply NASTY.
The June bottom is where Traders are now focused. I'm looking lower.
It's not going to hold IMHO, 3588 for the ES will be tested and panic will
become a brushfire.
Yesterday's SPY frenzy failed 8 times... it whipsawed all the degenerate
gunslinging gamblers - all in the last 150 minutes.
Degens were buying calls into the closing... which in turn provided the
fuel to wreck them for the 9th time into Globex.
Amazing to watch, but disappointing as we traders need Liquidity.
Net/Net the CBOE Equity Put/Call Ratio closed the day @ 0.71 for Sep 21, 2022.
Technically the Markets do not support Buyers.
Liquidity does not support Buyers.
Margins do not support Buyers.
Volatility does not support Buyers. A larger Gap Fills overhead.
Yields do not support Buyers.
The Dollar does not support Buyers. Look for my 111.71 Po to be hit, should
it snap higher... 112.27 to 144.11 come into the Trade,
I have been patiently waiting for the real Panic event, where the Algos
simply pull the Bids and let gravity take hold.
Is there a setup here?
No, there is however a great many trades.
Options positioning has played an important role in Intra-Week to Monthly
expiration. I trade the O/I Setups and imbalance as a better guide Intra-day
and Intra-week.
It's a nose-biter, but it is what we are given.
3810 on the ES is gone 380.11 & 382.67 for the SPY - goners.
NQ's 50 FULL HWB 50% @ 13415 - nearly 2K overhead.
Dow/YM - 28.4 / 28.2 Gap Fills ahead.
VIX - Term Structure... Backwardation I wanred of...
arrived.
Bonds - my implied "Return of Capital" trade is active. They will be wrecked
again, the same traders buying TLT since 180, 155, 145, 130, and 120 will simply
be hammered again. Flight to Disaster Trade will fail again as it has 7 times.
You do you traders will be crushed again. Flight to Safety will get caught
up and distend Value and Price once again. I'll be Seller into the next CT in
TLT.
Bitcoin - rejected, Sub 10K ahead - the larger Long Term trendline, IMHO
will not provide lasting support.
Gold - Horror show continues. After being repeatedly told by a few traders it's a
buy @ 1930... 1900, 1872, 1850, and 1800... they are now about $300 out of the money
since bringing out the Bullhorns... GOLD is heading a great deal lower. Ya'll were
warned by a person who has traded Gold for 44 years now. Projecting sophomoric
experiences from YouTube... fails every time. Trading on the Comex back in the
day isn't some dumbass projecting, it's wisdom. You do you aka... wrong again.
Energy, we remain patient for the 77 Full HB Test to see the lower extension.
Sentiment - Terminal.
In Sum - charts are pretty much useless as Fundas take hold, yes they'll instruct
on Possibility/ Probability - but that is rather obvious is it not?
________________________________________________________________
Powell promised to Break "Something" - "Everything" appears more appropriate.
Fixed.
Powell indicated the FED sees further Risks to Inflation and needs to bring
Fed Funds move aggressively towards the Inflation Rate.
Will Technical Exhaustion provide a small Counter-Trend this week... possibly,
but that appears to be an event for Friday. Powell speaks @ 2 PM EST Friday.
___________________________________________________________________
Calculating the Yield Push forward for 6 Months, I currently have 4.53% for
Effective Fed Funds into April / June of 2023. This is subject to change as
my Dot Plot is now ~480/490, unfortunately, it extends to 500/510 into
March of 2024.
The Yield Curve will see 6% into October of 2023 IMHO. The Pullback to 2.71 on
10 Year was a very limited YCC intervention from the Federal Reserve.
My projection, the Federal Reserve is relying on Inflation returning below 6%
into 2023.
It is important to remember the BLS reset the BASE for CPI on January 1st, 2022.
2019/2020 is the present Base.
___________________________________________________________________
I have referenced the FSR repeatedly for 10 Months - If you have not read the
Federal Reserve's Financial Stability Report since last November and again
for the May 2022 release - it requires traders' attention.
Here is their SPY Objective - 240 - it will likely exceed this level over time
filling the Gap at 235.
___________________________________________________________________
Good Luck & Trade Safe.
Are you a Dip Buyer - with Powell stating the FED is on the low side of the
Target Range?
That is a suicide, assured.
See Chart - the obnoxious Bots are far more intelligent than us and gaining
further ground exponentially. We closely observe their programs daily and
make adjustments among our small group of live traders each and every day.
That Chart is simply NASTY.
The June bottom is where Traders are now focused. I'm looking lower.
It's not going to hold IMHO, 3588 for the ES will be tested and panic will
become a brushfire.
Yesterday's SPY frenzy failed 8 times... it whipsawed all the degenerate
gunslinging gamblers - all in the last 150 minutes.
Degens were buying calls into the closing... which in turn provided the
fuel to wreck them for the 9th time into Globex.
Amazing to watch, but disappointing as we traders need Liquidity.
Net/Net the CBOE Equity Put/Call Ratio closed the day @ 0.71 for Sep 21, 2022.
Technically the Markets do not support Buyers.
Liquidity does not support Buyers.
Margins do not support Buyers.
Volatility does not support Buyers. A larger Gap Fills overhead.
Yields do not support Buyers.
The Dollar does not support Buyers. Look for my 111.71 Po to be hit, should
it snap higher... 112.27 to 144.11 come into the Trade,
I have been patiently waiting for the real Panic event, where the Algos
simply pull the Bids and let gravity take hold.
Is there a setup here?
No, there is however a great many trades.
Options positioning has played an important role in Intra-Week to Monthly
expiration. I trade the O/I Setups and imbalance as a better guide Intra-day
and Intra-week.
It's a nose-biter, but it is what we are given.
3810 on the ES is gone 380.11 & 382.67 for the SPY - goners.
NQ's 50 FULL HWB 50% @ 13415 - nearly 2K overhead.
Dow/YM - 28.4 / 28.2 Gap Fills ahead.
VIX - Term Structure... Backwardation I wanred of...
arrived.
Bonds - my implied "Return of Capital" trade is active. They will be wrecked
again, the same traders buying TLT since 180, 155, 145, 130, and 120 will simply
be hammered again. Flight to Disaster Trade will fail again as it has 7 times.
You do you traders will be crushed again. Flight to Safety will get caught
up and distend Value and Price once again. I'll be Seller into the next CT in
TLT.
Bitcoin - rejected, Sub 10K ahead - the larger Long Term trendline, IMHO
will not provide lasting support.
Gold - Horror show continues. After being repeatedly told by a few traders it's a
buy @ 1930... 1900, 1872, 1850, and 1800... they are now about $300 out of the money
since bringing out the Bullhorns... GOLD is heading a great deal lower. Ya'll were
warned by a person who has traded Gold for 44 years now. Projecting sophomoric
experiences from YouTube... fails every time. Trading on the Comex back in the
day isn't some dumbass projecting, it's wisdom. You do you aka... wrong again.
Energy, we remain patient for the 77 Full HB Test to see the lower extension.
Sentiment - Terminal.
In Sum - charts are pretty much useless as Fundas take hold, yes they'll instruct
on Possibility/ Probability - but that is rather obvious is it not?
________________________________________________________________
Powell promised to Break "Something" - "Everything" appears more appropriate.
Fixed.
Powell indicated the FED sees further Risks to Inflation and needs to bring
Fed Funds move aggressively towards the Inflation Rate.
Will Technical Exhaustion provide a small Counter-Trend this week... possibly,
but that appears to be an event for Friday. Powell speaks @ 2 PM EST Friday.
___________________________________________________________________
Calculating the Yield Push forward for 6 Months, I currently have 4.53% for
Effective Fed Funds into April / June of 2023. This is subject to change as
my Dot Plot is now ~480/490, unfortunately, it extends to 500/510 into
March of 2024.
The Yield Curve will see 6% into October of 2023 IMHO. The Pullback to 2.71 on
10 Year was a very limited YCC intervention from the Federal Reserve.
My projection, the Federal Reserve is relying on Inflation returning below 6%
into 2023.
It is important to remember the BLS reset the BASE for CPI on January 1st, 2022.
2019/2020 is the present Base.
___________________________________________________________________
I have referenced the FSR repeatedly for 10 Months - If you have not read the
Federal Reserve's Financial Stability Report since last November and again
for the May 2022 release - it requires traders' attention.
Here is their SPY Objective - 240 - it will likely exceed this level over time
filling the Gap at 235.
___________________________________________________________________
Good Luck & Trade Safe.
הערה
Correction - "The Dollar does not support Buyers. Look for my 111.71 Po to be hit, shouldit snap higher... 112.27 to 144.11 come into the Trade"
114.11 and NOT 144.11
כתב ויתור
המידע והפרסומים אינם אמורים להיות, ואינם מהווים, עצות פיננסיות, השקעות, מסחר או סוגים אחרים של עצות או המלצות שסופקו או מאושרים על ידי TradingView. קרא עוד בתנאים וההגבלות.