SPY Potential Retrace to 194

Currently in a downtrend. Lower high, with a closer pullback than any recent pullback. RSI is weakening, selling volume looks like it will rise as it did the last 2 pullbacks. 0.382 line was already hit previously, so I expect this to pull back to at least the 0.5 area (194ish) this time. The last major pullback did not respect the 200 sma, and I am not sure it will this time either. I also would not be surprised it it pulled back to 0.618 (191ish).

As such I went long today SPXU (2x Leveraged SPY Short). Stop Loss will be set around the SPY $204-$205 range, near the 50 sma