tahirg0010

Inflation Trade

לונג
TIP/IEF  
TIP/IEF  
In the chart below you have the TIP and IEF the IEF ratio. IEF is Ishares 7-10 year treasury bond ETF and TIP is the TIPs bond etf. On the right side of the chart you have the 10 year inflation breakeven. Now looking at the two you can see that they track pretty closely. Now generally the IEF 7-10 year has a very similar duration to that of the TIP etf.

Some people are wondering how to play the inflation hedge as with some of the largest tech stocks P/E multiple compression could pose an issue to high P/E ratio trading stocks. What does this mean, and what is multiple compression. Well what happens as inflation rises that inflation starts to be built into P/E multiples, and as that happens you start to get compression of those P/E multiples this can pose a massive risk to equity holders.

So my thesis would be you could short IEF, and be long TIP. This is something to look into, and I believe that spread that you can see below is going to widen tremendously. So it is something to watch out for, and a trade you might want to consider setting up.
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