Interest rates have been a major driver of stock prices since early 2022, and today something noteworthy happened with the key 10-year Treasury note.

The first pattern on this yield chart is the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) marked in red. On Wednesday, it slid below the 200-day SMA (in green) for the first time since November 2021. Commonly known as a “death cross,” this relationship is often viewed as an indicator of long-term direction.

Next, you have two falling trendlines. TNX climbed after breaking the first trendline in February. This month, however, it’s stayed below a similar trendline.

Third, a 50 percent retracement of the drop in March is roughly at 3.61. Notice how the yield has remained below that level, which potentially confirms the downward movement.
Traders could next eye roughly 3.25. It was the low in April and an old high from October 2018.

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