One Last Push Before It’s Over?

29 ביוני

Total Market Cap  TOTAL TOTALES

From a price action perspective, the structure looks very constructive:
• In May 2021, a swing high was formed, which later became a key resistance level.
• In November 2021, we saw a fakeout, confirming the significance of the level.
• Between March and June 2024, there was a clear rejection from this resistance.
• Eventually, price broke through the level and completed a clean retest from above — textbook move.

The bullish structure remains intact and has been reaffirmed once again. With that in mind, a new ATH on Total Market Cap feels like just a matter of time. The 3.73T+ level is likely to be taken out soon.


From a volume distribution perspective, the market is currently trading near the upper VWAP band — between +1σ and +2σ, yet shows no signs of overheating. Historically, the extreme zone is marked by +3σ, which currently sits around $4.6 trillion.

Wave Structure

The impulsive wave that began in 2022 appears to be nearing its completion. Given the price action and internal structure, it is highly likely that the final fifth wave is forming as an ending diagonal.
The $4.6–5 trillion zone stands out as a potential market top.

Volume behavior is key here:

• We’re seeing notable vertical volume spikes in the current phase.
  
• Horizontal volume (volume profile) reveals a strong cluster and point of control (POC) — a clear sign of distribution.
  

This pattern often signals the final stage of a bull cycle and precedes a reversal. The question is when, not if.

That said, the trend remains bullish for now. Notably, we don't yet observe strong RSI divergences on major timeframes, which supports the case for a continued push higher in the short term.

15 בספט׳

עסקה פעילה

TOTAL — Update
Target 3.73T+ has been reached. The market has rolled into a correction — not a short pause, but a full-fledged phase of pressure.
The most likely scenario: wave 4 of a terminal diagonal → downside through September and October → then continuation of growth.
The only alternative would be BTC holding the 118–120 zone, but given seasonality and signals from Nasdaq/S&P, this looks like playing against the odds.
See the market as it is, not as you wish it to be.