Tesla Update: I WANT to be Bullish

As the title implies, I WANT to be bullish right now. Many times towards the end of this run I have questioned my analysis, checked it over 100 different times, and even started over completely a couple times. Each and every time I come to the same conclusion. It is a corrective move and coming to an end. Below are just a few reasons I still believe it is NOT wave ((3)) / in a new bull run.

1. Overlap -- There has just been too much overlap. Marked on the graph are arrows pointing to the areas I' refering
2. Clearly Corrective -- I have been talking for a while now about how this move has been corrective. An impulsive move has clearly identifiable waves and is not overlapping at all unless it is a diagonal. This does not appear to be a diagonal move to me right now. Even if it was, that would indicate we are about to start wave 4...which would mean we are about to head lower. A wave 4 in a leading diagonal would end somewhere in the vicinity of the high $160's-$170's. If you recall that is the area I am tagging, but I am calling it a (B) wave. Regardless, if it is wave 4 or (B) wave, both have the same end target and both will rebound in that area creating a potentially good buy entry.
3. Neg. Div. -- Not trying to repeat myself to much but we hit OMH on Neg. Div. on the 1HR today. This is in addition to the 15min and tells me we're most likely done to the upside for now.
4. Time -- Compare wave ((1)) $101-$217 vs this move of $151-Now...you're telling me that's a wave ((3))??? No way...maaaayyyybe if it is a leading diagonal, you could make that case. Even then, odds are extremely low as wave 3's are typically the strongest in an impulsive motive wave. Currently, it has been 3 days longer since the bottom of $151 then the entire wave ((1)). Yet we have moved 25% less?? I'm sorry but I just can't get behind that right now. If this was really our wave ((3)) we should have been to at least $250 by now, EASILY.

I WANT to be bullish right now, but the only impulsive move I have seen thus far is this last (c) wave we are currently in. The only impulsive possibility this thing has left, like I said, is a diagonal and that count is on thin ice. Let's not speculate to much though and let price prove it's intentions.

Bonam Fortunam,
--Tyler

הערה:

NASDAQ just hit OMH on neg divergence on the 1HR. Let's hope that causes Tesla to fall with it

הערה:

I am still bearish but price is forcing me to look at this from a more bullish perspective as well. If this is wave ((3)) then our first subdivision would end around the $240 area before falling back to around $200ish. Here is a bull chart...as I said though, I'm not completely convinced but boy price is making a complex argument.

הערה:

הערה:

On the 1HR MACD we still have Neg. Div. for this move up. If it stays that way this count stands. That also means we should drop hard on Monday. If that is not the case and we make a new high on the MACD along with a new high for price, then the bull count prevails, and I will change my primary to reflect that. UNTIL WE HAVE POSITIVE DSIVERGENCE WITH A NEW HIGH MY CURRENT COUNT STANDS! I will make a new post before market opens Monday.