looking to go long TWTR if price can close above trend line
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waiting for a monthly close above the descending trend line, which is just above the top of the regression trend, stop loss would potentially be pretty tight - a monthly close back below the trend line, the monthly close entry and stop are riskier because price could blast through the trend line pretty significantly in a month's time but I feel like the monthly close would be a more solid signal to trade on
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disregard the green uptrend line, it's no longer valid and I forgot to delete itהערה
Crazy volatility, yesterday it looked like it was going to be a long month waiting to see if it closes above my target and it was only 2 days into the month and looked like price had no intention of stopping, now today it's back under the target. I'll update at the end of the month and see where it's at.הערה
Likely going long TWTR near end of today. Stop loss is a monthly close back below the white trend line which is right about $41.50. I will be a little more conservative with it and say a monthly close below this month's opening price of $40.61 which as of next month would be a close just back inside the regression trend. I don't see price breaking down today, but anyway I'll wait until near the close to buy just in case.הערה
There is obvious risk with the monthly close stop, price could absolutely fall apart in a month's time and I'm fine with that because I am diversified (I'm not betting the "farm" on this trade). And these are just notes about what I'm personally doing. If you decide to follow any of this, trade at your own risk.הערה
Well that was a really bad reaction to earnings after close yesterday. Price gave up the entire month's worth of gains in the blink of an eye. Not a good sign but unless price closes below my stop loss today I will ride it out for another month. I think price action was too bullish pre-earnings and that's why it tanked after earnings (too many people thought buying it just for earnings would be a day trade slam dunk after recent earnings pops by SNAP and PINS; I personally am in it for a longer move than just a one day pop). If it had sold off some pre-earnings it may have had a nice pop. Just my take on things, seems pretty manipulated. Anyway holding for now unless price drops another ~$5 today.. which would be crazy but not impossible.הערה
Absolutely brutal day - it wiped out almost 2 months' worth of gains in one day. I really want to get out in case it takes a while for election results to be decided next month (perhaps even longer than that), but at the same time if things don't go as chaotically as they are projecting, the market should have a nice rally. Too many people caught on to the breakout in this stock and they are just shaking people out. Not sure how far down they will take it, anyway I will stick with my parameters outlined above. As of right now it's barely hanging on and I will hold as well but if it drops just another $1 in the last half hour today I will get out and look for re-entry at some point.הערה
Price has recovered nicely this month. Encouraged that it looks like price wants to close above the September candle close. Updating the stop loss to a monthly close below Nov. 2020 opening price of $41.15. So unless price absolutely falls apart today I will continue to hold, I don't see that happening but you never really know...הערה
Updating stop loss to breakeven ($44.50 open order), hopefully that's room enough to let it continue to run, but anyway playing with house money now at least.הערה
This trade is currently hanging on by a thread, will likely get stopped out at breakeven but I'm ok with that, no sense protecting just a dollar of profit. I really feel it's just another shakeout and this stock will eventually head higher and surpass the recent top that was made in the mid $50 range but if I get stopped out oh well, I won't chase it. There are better chart patterns out there to trade.הערה
Trade officially closed, I will not be looking for re-entry as this is the second major shakeout I've been through since getting in. I managed to stay in through the first one, but that shakeout should have set it up to go on a big run and that didn't happen. I'm not a day trader but I suppose day traders could make a lot of money on the short moves this stock makes. Anyway, too volatile for me, good luck if you decide to continue to trade this stock.הערה
Looks like my gut was right, sometimes all you can do is shake your head, I was stopped out by 10 cents and then it's gone up ever since. This is another example of why I like to use stop losses based on monthly closing price rather than open orders. Market makers can see your open orders and feels really manipulated sometimes especially when you're just barely stopped out and then it heads higher. Like I said I'm not going to chase but this is a good learning opportunity for me.הערה
I actually might re-enter this, I'm waiting to see if the Nasdaq touches it's 200-day EMA (currently right around 12,000). If it does a lot of stocks (including this one) will probably be a lot cheaper. If not, then oh well I'll look for other opportunities.הערה
Nevermind on potentially re-entering, Nasdaq appears to have broken out, RSI on the index broke out yesterday and price followed through today (daily chart).הערה
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Update on the Nasdaq (below). It's really looking like a double top at the moment, time will tell. If price just tests the 200-day EMA, which isn't even that much of a correction, the price of TWTR will likely be significantly lower. I'm not sure if I'll re-enter at this time, just watching for now.הערה
I expect this stock will continue to run at least in the short-term if the Nasdaq can break out of current ~4-mo. consolidation pattern. I thought the Nasdaq might touch it's 200-day EMA and was considering re-entering this stock if that happened but it never did. Likely won't be touching this stock any time soon and probably will stop commentating on it. But I will say that it's still in a strong long-term uptrend on a monthly closing basis. I'll post current charts below. I want to say thanks for anyone that followed all this, unfortunately the trade was just barely stopped out originally but for sure would have been stopped out in March when price dropped from ~$80 to ~$60. If I had stayed in I definitely would have been protecting at least half of the profit. I would have failed to get back in though because I got a bit greedy expecting the Nasdaq to break down a little more than it actually did as it turns out. This trade was a shorter-term pattern than I typically like to trade on. I have some other ideas on here that are close to breaking out or just breaking out so please check those out if interested.
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There is a short-term trade setting up, bull flag, triangle consolidation pattern is coming to a point. Earnings are coming up next month and it should break decisively one way or the other. Since the trend is up, I would expect price to break higher out of this short-term consolidation. I may take a shot at this but I'll watch price action next month before the earnings report.הערה
It won't let me post updated chart image. I'll try again later.הערה
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Uptrend line is based on monthly closing prices. I like to ignore intra-month volatility for the most part but admit this is dangerous at times. I like to trade on what it ended up doing in the end on a monthly basis, so I am able to set the trend line closer than someone else who uses the intra-month action. The downtrend line above isn't perfect, I could actually set it even closer based on this theory (updated below).הערה
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What I'm looking for is negative action early next month (first couple weeks), which would entice me to want to buy before earnings hoping for a short-term pop. I may sell right after earnings or use potential negative action early in the month to get in at at good (short-term) price and ride it to new highs. If price is up early on next month that will make me less inclined to try this trade. Also, I have no idea which way earnings will go, it's just the trend is up, so I expect a positive reaction, especially if recent price action is flat to negative.הערה
If price makes a monthly close below the nearly 2-yr uptrend line (which it currently looks like it's going to do) then this trade is also off.הערה
Price has broken the uptrend line based on monthly closing prices. That is not a good sign. I could definitely be wrong since this is an intermediate-term pattern but the likelihood is greater for more downside and more of a shakeout than this before it potentially may head higher.
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