United Spirits: Technical Analysis & Key Levels to Watch
As we analyze the weekly chart of United Spirits Ltd. (UNITDSPR), it’s evident that the stock has been following a steady uptrend, supported by a strong ascending channel. This analysis dives into the technical indicators, price action, and potential future moves to help make an informed investment decision.
1. Trend Analysis: Ascending Channel
The stock has been trading within an ascending channel since mid-2023, forming consistent higher highs and higher lows. This channel signifies a healthy, gradual uptrend.
Upper Resistance: The upper bound of the channel acts as resistance, and the stock recently tested this zone near ₹1,508, showing signs of rejection.
Lower Support: The lower boundary of the channel, around ₹1,181, provides strong support.
The channel structure indicates a bullish bias as long as the price respects the lower boundary.
2. Fibonacci Pivots
The Fibonacci pivot levels on the chart provide key support and resistance zones:
Resistance Levels:
R1: ₹1,529
R2: ₹1,691 (next major resistance if the stock breaks above ₹1,529).
Support Levels:
S1: ₹1,181 (major support near the channel's lower boundary).
S2: ₹1,044 (critical for long-term trend reversal).
If the stock closes below ₹1,181, the short-term bullish momentum may weaken.
3. MACD (Momentum Analysis)
The MACD (12, 26, 9) on the weekly chart shows:
Bearish Crossover: The MACD line has crossed below the signal line, indicating weakening momentum in the short term.
Histogram Decline: A consistent reduction in histogram bars suggests a potential correction phase.
Despite the short-term bearish signals, the broader uptrend remains intact unless the price breaks key support levels.
4. Recent Price Action
In recent weeks, the stock has faced selling pressure near the ₹1,508–₹1,529 resistance zone. This is further confirmed by the bearish candle formation and rejection near the channel's upper boundary.
However, the presence of a truckload of support levels below, including the ₹1,181 pivot, suggests limited downside risk.
5. Risk-Reward Setup
Based on the chart, the risk-reward setup looks favorable:
Entry Zone: ₹1,181–₹1,200 (near channel support and S1 pivot).
Target Levels:
Short-Term: ₹1,529 (channel resistance).
Medium-Term: ₹1,691 (R2 pivot).
Stop-Loss: A weekly close below ₹1,181 may invalidate the bullish view, making ₹1,044 the next key support.
6. Broader Market Context
Given the overall market sentiment, the stock appears poised to perform well if:
The broader indices maintain their upward momentum.
Sectoral tailwinds, such as rising demand for premium beverages and excise duty relief in the Union Budget, continue to favor growth.
Conclusion & Investment Strategy
United Spirits Ltd. remains a strong candidate for bullish investors, given its position within the ascending channel and well-defined support levels.
Short-Term View: Watch for a rebound near ₹1,181 with a target of ₹1,529.
Medium-Term View: A breakout above ₹1,529 could propel the stock toward ₹1,691.
While the MACD suggests some short-term weakness, the overall trend remains bullish as long as the lower channel boundary holds. Traders should remain cautious of any break below ₹1,181, as it could signal deeper corrections.
1. Trend Analysis: Ascending Channel
The stock has been trading within an ascending channel since mid-2023, forming consistent higher highs and higher lows. This channel signifies a healthy, gradual uptrend.
Upper Resistance: The upper bound of the channel acts as resistance, and the stock recently tested this zone near ₹1,508, showing signs of rejection.
Lower Support: The lower boundary of the channel, around ₹1,181, provides strong support.
The channel structure indicates a bullish bias as long as the price respects the lower boundary.
2. Fibonacci Pivots
The Fibonacci pivot levels on the chart provide key support and resistance zones:
Resistance Levels:
R1: ₹1,529
R2: ₹1,691 (next major resistance if the stock breaks above ₹1,529).
Support Levels:
S1: ₹1,181 (major support near the channel's lower boundary).
S2: ₹1,044 (critical for long-term trend reversal).
If the stock closes below ₹1,181, the short-term bullish momentum may weaken.
3. MACD (Momentum Analysis)
The MACD (12, 26, 9) on the weekly chart shows:
Bearish Crossover: The MACD line has crossed below the signal line, indicating weakening momentum in the short term.
Histogram Decline: A consistent reduction in histogram bars suggests a potential correction phase.
Despite the short-term bearish signals, the broader uptrend remains intact unless the price breaks key support levels.
4. Recent Price Action
In recent weeks, the stock has faced selling pressure near the ₹1,508–₹1,529 resistance zone. This is further confirmed by the bearish candle formation and rejection near the channel's upper boundary.
However, the presence of a truckload of support levels below, including the ₹1,181 pivot, suggests limited downside risk.
5. Risk-Reward Setup
Based on the chart, the risk-reward setup looks favorable:
Entry Zone: ₹1,181–₹1,200 (near channel support and S1 pivot).
Target Levels:
Short-Term: ₹1,529 (channel resistance).
Medium-Term: ₹1,691 (R2 pivot).
Stop-Loss: A weekly close below ₹1,181 may invalidate the bullish view, making ₹1,044 the next key support.
6. Broader Market Context
Given the overall market sentiment, the stock appears poised to perform well if:
The broader indices maintain their upward momentum.
Sectoral tailwinds, such as rising demand for premium beverages and excise duty relief in the Union Budget, continue to favor growth.
Conclusion & Investment Strategy
United Spirits Ltd. remains a strong candidate for bullish investors, given its position within the ascending channel and well-defined support levels.
Short-Term View: Watch for a rebound near ₹1,181 with a target of ₹1,529.
Medium-Term View: A breakout above ₹1,529 could propel the stock toward ₹1,691.
While the MACD suggests some short-term weakness, the overall trend remains bullish as long as the lower channel boundary holds. Traders should remain cautious of any break below ₹1,181, as it could signal deeper corrections.
כתב ויתור
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