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US100 Long U.S. Debt Deal Optimism Boosts Sentiment

מעודכן

I have marked the Bullish Bearish scenarios of the next 2 weeks(Possible Potential Long)

Green Bullish

Golden Cross

High Bullish Volume
Technically: HH HL
Donchian Long

June S&P 500 futures
ESM2023
are trending up +0.18% this morning as market participants weighed the latest updates on negotiations in Washington to reach a debt-ceiling deal while awaiting a key speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

In Thursday’s trading session, the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 notched a 1-year high, boosted by gains in chip stocks and a more than +9% jump in Netflix Inc
NFLX
after the streaming giant said its recently launched ad-supported tier reached about 5 million active users per month. Also, the benchmark S&P 500 rose to a 9-month high, helped in part by an over +11% surge in Take-Two Interactive Software Inc
TTWO
after the company reported above-consensus Q4 net bookings. In addition, Walmart Inc
WMT
rose more than +1% after the retail giant reported upbeat Q1 results and raised its full-year guidance, helping keep the blue-chip Dow in positive territory.

הערה

Monday happens nothing
tuesday
pmi important also for eurousd if euro gets stronger nasdaq and s+p500 and gold get stronger too
pmi for dollar at 9:45 watch closely and wait how the algos trade. Dont go immediately in,just be patient
also manufacturing data will be published. Important

Until the dat come out, the price moves higher or lower above/below the opening price ,but suddenly comes back to the opening level. No good idea to trade.

Wednesday 2p.m.: FOMC meeting, but this meeting is FOMC minute. High impact, but not so much as the real FOMC meeting,
10 a.m. Yellen will speak,

Thurseday: GDP,pending homesales,unemployment

Friday: Big Day,PCE coming out, also Durable goods
also consumer sentiments and inflation expectations.

Friday will be a very busy day. Watch for those data points.

הערה

This week:

s+p500
4193 to 4180 should be filled. I am looking bearish this week until sp500 goes to around 4160.
There I will be prepared for a buy, if volume sinks, and we have a bullish signal. The volume has to be increase, while the price gos up again.
If not so, it could mean, that important news, what the public does not know will arrive soon.In this case I willstay out.
If we have buy presure, the target will be 4180, we hold above it, we go then to 4223, and then 4277, cuz there no resistance

Nasdaq US100
Big LVN zone 13563-13606 and a single close at 13689 and 13750

I am expecting that coming down and correction.No! I want to have this correction, before US100 begins a big buy pressure at this level and rise higher.
My bullish target will be then 13952,13999,14218 and 14298

There we have nearly no resistances

In case US100 falls below 13606,
it nears of 13518 but latestly 13350. There are my next Bulls waiting to welcome the bears and support the strong Buy pressure.

Bitcoin.Possibly will come down to 2395 area before the Buying pressure begins.
It has to go above 27700. If we start sideways and the volume reducing, I will take the first Profits, and wait for a second ,but powerfull bullish run.
Then we had the pullback to 38,2 Fib which is a bullflag level,
We pushed then the high ,and higher highs which was wonderful

Gold: we had very strong impulse from 1618 to 1973

Then we had the pullback to 38,2 Fib which is a bullflag level,
We pushed then the high ,and higher highs which was wonderful

The profit taking on the Highs put back Gold in a correction mode,
I am expecting Gold will come down to 1900-1936 (62%Fib.) and then we attack 2150, and then 2212.5

Important is: Gold must Close this week above 1900-1920.

If it doesn´t and falls below this level, then we will see 1840 agin. It will be a ull trend, ,but it will need longer to climb higher.

If we close above 1920 this Friday, then possibly in the next 14 Days Gold will RISE HIGHER...

הערה

The dollar index steadied around 103.3 on Tuesday, supported by growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer, while traders cautiously awaited updates from the debt ceiling negotiations. In the latest central bank commentary, Fed’s Bullard suggested the possibility of raising rates by another half-point this year, while Fed's Kashkari described the decision to pause or hike rates in June as a close call. Markets have scaled back bets on interest rate cuts this year, with rates seen holding at around 4.7% by December. Meanwhile, President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy signaled cautious optimism that a deal to raise the debt ceiling would be reached, with Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen reaffirming that the US could be at risk of default by June 1.

הערה

U.S. stock index futures are showing a positive trend on Wednesday morning, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rising by 46 points (0.14% increase), S&P 500 futuresexperiencing a slight uptick of 0.16%, and Nasdaq 100 futures seeing a gain of 0.15%.

Traders are closely monitoring the ongoing debt-ceiling negotiations. And they are eagerly awaiting the release of the Federal Reserve’s May meeting minutes for insights into future monetary policy decisions.

Fed Presidents Warn of Rate Hikes
In addition, regional Fed Presidents James Bullard and Neel Kashkari have indicated that the U.S. central bank may need to continue raising rates if inflation remains high.

Overall, the stock market is influenced by ongoing debt-ceiling negotiations, earnings reports, and the anticipation of the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes. The risk of a U.S. debt default and its potential consequences on economic growth and capital markets adds further uncertainty to the market environment.

הערה

The dollar has been trading a little firmer despite the impasse in US debt-ceiling negotiations. Bulls seem to be drawing strength from hawkish Fed speakers and technical forces. Prices have turned bullish on the daily charts with support found at 103.00. The upside momentum has already taken prices towards 103.80 with 104.00 the next key level of interest.

הערה

Selling Pressure,Weakenning of UsDollar, thats good for Euro. Strong Euro is GOOD,no VERY GOOD for SP500;NASDAQ;DOW JONES; GOLD;BITCOIN;CRYPTOS: Everything against Dollar.

Look also my NVIDIA Forecast Chart performed: Nailed it! Weak US DOllar also good for Tech Stocks, Bio Pharma and Tech have Highly positive correltions with Bitcoin and Ethereum, and vice versa. NVIDIA : Top Performer

Friday is the Big Day of the Week: aND IT WILL BE VERY BUISY. RGHT AFTER THE bELL PMI and Inflation DATA!

הערה

Market UpDATES:
NASDQ100 US100 and Indices Sky Rocketing after FED pivot reates cooling
Nasdaq breaking 14055 easily as forecasted in my analysis : Next Target 14350
NVIDAI Sky ROCKETING(Watch als my other Forecasts USD/US100/USDJPY/GOLD/EURO- Related Markets)
Godl Found More Buyers on support.More Bullish Delat coming in nEXT TO 2000USD)
Medium-term price action on the daily chart exhibits scope to extend losses. The longer-term ascending channel is interesting (drawn from $1,641 and $1,959). Note that price action FAILED to touch gloves with the upper boundary in recent trading, pencilling in highs just ahead of the all-time high of $2,075.
Investment Sentiment rising higher from Lows:More Bulls
The Key Fed Inflation Rate Is Cooling At Pivotal Time For The S&P 500
EURO/USD Taking Profits +More Bulls Accumulation and Buying Pressure /Support 1,4075

הערה

BUYING PRESSURE US100 AND BITCOIN pushes Gold and other metals soon much more higher

הערה

opened above Monthly open.Trend bullish

הערה

Markets steady ahead of final push on the debt deal

After long weekends in many parts of the world, FX markets are returning to some progress on the US debt ceiling. President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy have reached a two-year deal. That deal will be assessed by the House Rules Committee today and, if approved, will likely go to a vote in the House tomorrow. Both Democrat and Republican leaders feel they have the votes to get the deal through Congress – although at times like these, there may be a few holdout politicians who like their day in the sun.

הערה

GOLD STRONG BUY , short term correction coming soon

הערה

US Stocks Rise Ahead Inflation, Fed
The Dow Jones rose 20 points on Monday, the S&P 500 was up 0.3% and the Nasdaq 0.4% as investors are hopeful that inflationary pressures would show further signs of easing, supporting the case for a pause in the Fed’s interest rate hikes this week. The US inflation rate is forecasted to fall 4.1% in May, the lowest since March 2021, from 4.9% in April while the core gauge may decelerate to 5.2% from 5.5%. Most market participants expect the US central bank to leave interest rates unchanged at the current levels but there is a 30% chance of a rate hike depending on the CPI reading and after surprise moves in Australia and Canada last week. Among single stocks, Nasdaq tumbled 10% after the exchange operator said it agreed to acquire Adenza. Oracle was up nearly 4% ahead of earnings results after the market close
Crude Short oil make another bearish attempt
SHORT

Crude Short oil make another bearish attempt

BITCOIN WILL RISE HIGHER
LONG

Bank of Japan's Dovish Line Pushes Yen Down
LONG

GOLD STRONG BUY , short term correction coming soon
LONG

USD/CAD continues to move higher amid a broad sell-off in commod
LONG

USDCHF BEARISH Meets monthly Low and Support
SHORT

US100 Long U.S. Debt Deal Optimism Boosts Sentiment
LONG

הערה

CURRENCYCOM:US100 long
nasdaq100 us100 we go to 15200 where the profit taking and reveras begins US100 Long Rises Higher to 15200zone,the possible correction

US100 Long Rises Higher to 15200zone,the possible correction

הערה

US Dollar Index: DXY licks US inflation-inflicted wounds at three-week low above 103.00 on Fed day

US Dollar Index grinds near the lowest levels in three weeks after snapping two-day winning streak.
US inflation data bolsters market’s bets on Fed’s status quo and weigh on the DXY despite upbeat yields.
Cautious mood ahead of the FOMC announcements put a floor under the US Dollar price.
Expectations of witnessing a hawkish halt from US central bank highlight qualitative updates from the Fed.
US Dollar Index (DXY) steadies above 103.00, after bouncing off a three-week low, as markets brace for the Federal Reserve (Fed) announcements on Wednesday. The greenback’s gauge versus six major currencies slumped the most in a week, to the lowest levels since May 22, after the US inflation data fuelled speculations of the US central bank’s halt to the rate hike trajectory present in the last 10 monetary policy meetings.

As per the latest US inflation data for May, the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) drops more-than-expected and prior releases to 0.1% MoM and 4.0% YoY. However, the Core CPI, known as the CPI ex Food & Energy, matches 0.4% monthly and 5.3% yearly forecasts. It’s worth noting that the US headline CPI dropped to the lowest since March 2021 and hence justifies the market’s expectations of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) hawkish halt, which in turn should have weighed on the US Dollar.
Following the data, the CME’s FedWatch Tool suggests more than a 90% chance of the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) no rate hike during today’s monetary policy meeting, versus around 75% chance before that.

It’s worth noting, however, that the ex-Fed Officials have been pushing for a hawkish halt to the rate hikes and prods the DXY bears. On Tuesday, Former Dallas Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) President Robert Kaplan said that he would support a "hawkish pause" at this week's meeting while also adding that he would “leave the question of a July hike open.” Previously, Ex-Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren tweeted, “Expect a hawkish skip this week.”

As a result, Wall Street benchmarks rose for the second consecutive day but the US Treasury bond yields remain firmer. That said, the US 10-year Treasury bond yields rose to a 13-day high of 3.83% whereas the two-year counterpart poked the highest levels in three months with 4.70% mark before easing to 4.67% in the last hours.

Looking ahead, the pre-Fed sentiment may prod the DXY, as well as allow the greenback’s gauge to pare recent losses. However, the traders will pay attention to the US central bank’s economic forecasts, dot-plot and Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference for clear directions afterward, as the rate hike pause is almost given.

הערה

The Dow finished more than 100 points below the flatline on Friday, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq lost nearly 0.4% and 0.7%, respectively, as investors continued to assess the outlook of monetary policy for the Fed amid a massive options expiration at the second 2023’s quadruple witching date. Among stocks, Microsoft fell 1.7% and Micron Technology dropped 1.7%. Conversely, Virgin Galactic surged 16.3% on plans for commercial space tourism. Tesla added 1.8% after hitting a 37-week high during the session and Adobe gained 0.8% with positive earnings and guidance. On the week, the Dow Jones added 0.9%, marking a three-week winning streak despite the Fed's warning of future rate hikes. The S&P 500 gained 2.2%, its fifth consecutive weekly gain, the longest since November 2021, rising 2.2%. The Nasdaq was up 2.7% for an eighth straight positive week. Markets will be closed on Monday for the Juneteenth holiday.

הערה

Wall Street Extends Gain Ahead of CPI Data
US stocks closed higher on Tuesday, extending gains for the second session, as investors looked forward to the key inflation report due tomorrow. The Dow Jones finished over 316 points higher, as Salesforce rose 3.9% after the company announced it will be increasing list prices an average of 9% in August. 3M and Boeing were also among the top performers and advanced by 4.8% and 2.6%, respectively. The S&P 500 gained nearly 0.7%, led by the energy sector as APA (+6.3%), Halliburton (+4.2%) and Schlumberger (+4.5%) outperformed. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq added 0.5%. Traders were also digesting comments from several Fed officials which continued to point to the need of further tightening this year. The odds for a 25bps increase in the fed funds rate this year currently stand at 95%, but investors remain divided about another rate hike. The economic calendar is soft today and the earnings season kicks off later in the week.

הערה

US Stocks Pop on Cooling Inflation
All major US stocks indexes were trading in the green on Wednesday afternoon as June CPI data came cooler-than-expected, raising hopes that Fed officials might rethink their stance on more rate hikes. The Dow Jones was up more than 100 points after reaching the highest level since November earlier in the session, as Salesforce, Goldman Sachs and Home Depot outperformed, adding nearly 2% each. The S&P 500 gained 0.8%, a level not seen since April of 2022, led by shares in the consumer discretionary, tech and basic materials sectors. The Nasdaq was up about 1.2%, also the highest since April last year. Bank stocks advanced firmly, with Citigroup and Goldman Sachs adding 2.9% and 2.5%, respectively. Also, regional banks such as Comerica(5.1%) and Zions Bancorporation (4.9%). In the news, Domino's Pizza surged over 11% after revealing its deal with Uber Eats.
All major US stocks indexes were trading in the green on Wednesday afternoon as June CPI data came cooler-than-expected, raising hopes that Fed officials might rethink their stance on more rate hikes. The Dow Jones was up more than 100 points after reaching the highest level since November earlier in the session, as Salesforce, Goldman Sachs and Home Depot outperformed, adding nearly 2% each. The S&P 500 gained 0.8%, a level not seen since April of 2022, led by shares in the consumer discretionary, tech and basic materials sectors. The Nasdaq was up about 1.2%, also the highest since April last year. Bank stocks advanced firmly, with Citigroup and Goldman Sachs adding 2.9% and 2.5%, respectively. Also, regional banks such as Comerica(5.1%) and Zions Bancorporation (4.9%). In the news, Domino's Pizza surged over 11% after revealing its deal with Uber Eats.Japanese Yen attempting fifth consecutive daily advance (first time since December)
USD/JPY plunge now approaching major support confluence- risk for price inflection
Resistance 140.10s, 140.93, 142.10/50 (key)- support 137.36/91, 136.15, 134.04
The Japanese Yen has continued to coil just below uptrend resistance with major event risk on tap into the close of the week. The focus is on a breakout of the monthly opening-range for guidance. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the USD/JPY short-term technical charts.
Initial resistance now eyed at the 75% parallel (blue slope currently ~140.10s) backed by the objective May high at 140.93. Ultimately, a breach / close above the weekly open / 61.8% retracement of the 2022 decline at 142.10/50 would be needed to mark resumption of the broader USD/JPY uptrend.

Bottom line: The USD/JPY plunge us approaching the first major technical support hurdle just below the 138-handle. From at trading standpoint, look to reduce portions of short-exposure / lower protective stops on a stretch towards this key support zone – rallies should be limited to the weekly open IF price is heading lower on this stretch. I’ll publish an updated Japanese Yen Weekly Forecast once we get further clarity on the longer-term USD/JPY technical trade levels.

הערה

US Futures Steady Ahead of Major Bank Earnings

US stock futures held steady on Friday after four-day winning streak on Wall Street as investors look ahead to earnings reports from major banks. Futures contracts tied to the three major indexes were all trading near breakeven. In regular trading on Thursday, the Dow rose 0.14%, the S&P 500 gained 0.85% and the Nasdaq Composite rallied 1.58%, with nine out of the 11 S&P sectors ending higher led to the upside by communication services, technology and consumer discretionary. Those gains came as the latest producer price index report showed inflation rose less than anticipated in June, adding to signs that US inflation is on a downward trend and raising hopes that the current tightening cycle is nearing the end. Investors now await earnings reports from big banks such as JPMorgan, Wells Fargo and Citi on Friday for more clues on the economy. US consumer sentiment data from the University of Michigan is also on deck.

Bitcoin Climbs as US Inflation Slows
Bitcoin broke above the $31,000 mark in mid-July, hitting its strongest levels in 13 months as signs that US inflation is on a downward trend raised hopes that the Federal Reserve is nearing the end of its current monetary policy tightening cycle. Latest data showed that US consumer and producer inflation rose less than anticipated in June, while the US labor market remained robust. The US central bank is still seen raising rates by 25 basis points in July, while traders scaled back bets of further rate increases this year. Market pricing also suggests that the Fed could start cutting rates next year. Optimism over the creation of spot bitcoin ETFs by major financial firms such as BlackRock also continued to bolster prices, though the US SEC has yet to approve applications.

DaveBrascoFX

youtube.com/@DavyBrasco-Official-Channel/videos

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