Here is a chart of quarterly PCE growth, which gives another useful 'recession watch' indicator. It is currently at a critical level and worth keeping a close eye on.
Commentary from "The Recession Playbook" from Morgan Stanley:
"With growth in real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) below 2.5% sending a reasonably consistent recession signal. Each of the last 5 recessions has seen real PCE actually shrink on a y/y basis by the end of the recession, but leading into the recessions a large decline in the growth of PCE is also very consistent. Given the heavy reliance of the US economy on the domestic consumer, slowing consumer spend is perhaps an obvious precondition for any recession."
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