US 10Y TREASURY: waiting January inflation

During the previous week there has not been significant news published for the current state of the US economy, so the Treasury yields remained relatively stable, moving within a short range. The US Labor department revised its data for the inflation in December from 0.3% down to 0.2%, but the US Treasuries did not react much to this news. One of the reasons might be that the week ahead will bring a release of the inflation rate for January, in which sense, December`s data might be of less importance at this moment. At the same time several Fed officials publicly noted that the Fed is resilient to cut rates too soon, in which sense, the first rate cut might be postponed from the period currently expected by the market.

The 10Y US Treasuries started the previous week around the 4.0% level, but moved to the higher grounds during the week. Highest weekly level reached was 4.19%. Yields are testing the highest level from the end of January, but without an indication that this level might be clearly breached. This increases probability for a short reversal to the down side, however, at this moment on charts there is indication for the level of 4.0%, with quite low probability that yields could go lower from this level in the coming week.