Ready for 6.5% on the 10Y T-Bill?

It’s been a while since I’ve posted an Idea, however since the market may be at a pivotal point I thought I’d do a quick analysis on the US10Y. Using elliott wave and fibonacci ratios as my base logic, I predict that we could see a 6.5% or higher 10 year T-bill in the near future.



The fib extension above is based off 1.00 of Primary waves 0-3. I’m counting that we are in the early stages of the 5th and final wave, which is commonly 61.8% of waves 0-3 in length.



My wave count is supported by the DMI indicator and the 50sma (Blue) & 100sma (yellow). The yield is still above the moving averages, signaling a continuation to the upside. Primary wave 4 was a zig zag (A-B-C) pattern in a slightly descending channel, which has a tendency to break to the upside. With inflation proving stubborn and a looming trade war providing a backdrop that is concerning to investors, it is time we get back into the mindset that the inflation battle isn’t quite over yet. Yields are rising across the world and the US is no exception.