USDJPY Finalizes Triangle - Bearish Against 121.30

30 בספט׳ 2015

The Elliott Wave picture on the USDJPY is slowly clearing up.

It appears the Elliott Wave triangle terminated on Sept 25. It is common to see the 'e' wave of the triangle break the a-c line (the red line) while holding below the wave 'c' extreme. Subsequent that rejection, we have a 5 wave sell off that cleanly matches up and holds many wave relationships of an impulse.

Wave 3 terminated near the 1.618 distance of wave 1
Wave 5 terminated near the equality measure of wave 1
Wave 5 terminated near the .382 length of wave 1-3
Wave 5 terminated near the parallel to the 2-4 price channel

The move since the Sept 29 low is clearly corrective. I'm showing a confluence of wave measurements coming into play at 120.40-120.50. (if prices don't make it to the reversal zone, consider a break of the grey trend line connecting both Sept 29 lows)

Therefore, we'll look to short into that price zone with 121.30 as the stop loss.

First target is near 118.50 so we should be comfortably better than a 1:2 risk to reward ratio.

Additional targets exist down near 115.