On March 3, Friday, the USDJPY slid from a two-and-a-half-month high. The US non-manufacturing ISM index, released on the same day, fell from 55.2 in January to 55.1. The US dollar index, which measures the dollar against six major currencies, dropped from a high of 105.36 at the beginning of the week to 104.60. Investors took the opportunity to profitably unwind their positions in USD/JPY.
At the same time, the Bank of Japan is expected to begin unwinding its unconventional stimulus measures in the period following Governor Haruhiko Kuroda's departure next month. This is because Tokyo's February inflation data exceeded the Bank of Japan's target for the ninth consecutive month. If the new governor, Toshihide Endo, tightens monetary policy, it may stimulate the return of speculative trading in the yen.
Currently, on the daily chart, USDJPY has encountered resistance multiple times at 137.00, and the MACD signal line appears to have a death cross. In the short term, attention should be paid to the risk of further pullbacks in USDJPY, with the risk of long positions at the high outweighing the profit.
Personal trading recommendation: Wait for the market to fall back to 133.00-133.60 before entering long positions, with a focus on the 136.400-137.110 range. There will be many data releases in the near future, and the market may be volatile. If there is a trading opportunity, I will announce it immediately. Please stay tuned.
עסקה פעילה:
wait patiently for an opportunity
עסקה פעילה:
approaching position
