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USDJPY shorting opportunity: is UJ topping?

מעודכן

USDJPY short Idea: is UJ finally Topping?

UJ has move up a lot recently.
I have been watching each of the initial impulses that add to the momentum.
Every impulse has results in perfect ripples of the .618 multiples.

Now we have several of those impulses that lined up to give the last big push up.
That last push resembles a ''blow off top'', and reach a confluence of Fib Extensions.
Each of the 618 multiples up there is from different time frames, but each has an influence.

Am hoping to get a short scalp in before London Open and have the SL at BreakEven by then.
So if the UK boys stop me out oh well. But I think they will sell, price is tooooo high to buy now.

If risk-off happens (I think stock markets might be topping as well), then this tumble could be massive.

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Hoping to see something like this start the pullback

Those grey zones are from my last Support/Resistance forecast:

USDJPY Fibonacci Support Resistance Zones: UJ as of Jul 1

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Stop Loss on first entry at Break Even already.
Starting with 10% of the allotted capital for this pair.
Hoping London Open wont take it out.

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UJ had hit the top of this pitchfork as well.
It has broken above before, but not from a mid-line start, helluva jump.

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First short attempt got stopped out at BE per 2 pics above.
Just shorted again:

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UJ impulse down looks pretty strong. If bulls cant retake the 3.618 extension, then the 5.618 ext is plausible
s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/l/lQgbfJoJ.png

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straight to the 4.618 it is then, and that tells me the 5.618 is the real target
s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/2/2kIfP5Lz.png

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UJ bounced with NY open, but then hit the 5.618 extension.
Now it looks to have found temporary support in a longer TF fib zone (grey)

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Following up to my last pic above:
After some stall in US session, we finally hit the 6.618 on this red fib.
Here were my thoughts during the move, commented on the chart pic:

However, I have since fine tuned a bit, and found something interesting.
Here are slightly modified Fib Extensions in blue, see comments on chart:

There was a GEAR SHIFT, the 618's were moved to the x.0000 multiples

However, the 618's were not powerless, they still held energy, shown here in GREEN

So what I have concluded:
The initial pebble drop (fib 0.0 - 1.0) defined the 'Frequency' of the wave downward.
An increase in 'Energy' causes the next wave peak to jump in amplitude to next band (or two?).
But the 'Frequency' of the wave remains the same, only it has been ''Shifted'' (by say a .382 of itself, jumping from 618 to 000).
While the main wave had shifted to the 000, there was still noticeable Resistance at the 618's.

Question to self: If the peaks 'Shift'' back to original band (618) or even lower, could that be ending of that wave?

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Getting back to the bigger picture of the trade:
The confluence of fibs from several TF's seem to have been a wall.

Zooming in, I will continue to measure and evaluate.
First a quick thought about the fibs already on original chart (two 4.618's showed relevance)

Second, if this is to be a wave A correction, then it should have 5 subwaves.
If we take that drop/bounce from the 4.618's as wave 1 and 2, it might go something like this:

Zoom in again, draw fib on wave 1, maybe that will be the frequency (or cycle) downward.
within w1's fib retrace, Wave 2 hits the .618 retrace perfectly, and several other ratios are cofirmed
Thus I have pretty good confidence in this fib placment.

So the purple fib above may will be the starting point of larger Wave A, with its frequency already defined.
Next, zoom back out with that same fib, add some Extensions, and bring back the larger TF fibs on original chart.
Now there appear some possible pathways for the minor 5 waves to form the larger wave A.

Of course, this assumes some news over the weekend to give a strong push down for minor wave 3.

It would be awesome if it gap'ed down to the next fib zone right at market open :)
OR, it could gap up and continue the uptrend as if this dip was just profit taking :(
Regardless of what it does now, I have some profits locked in, and am excited because this will be a very interesting week for USD pairs.

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Oh, additional note about last pic above, repeated here:

For the latest Fib's extensions (thick purple lines) I used the 1x multiples instead of the .618x multiples. This based on the 1x multiples noticed in the micro fib of wave 1 down in previous update. Plus the 1x multiples line up closer to previous (higher tf) fibs so that seems more probable. Again all of this assumes that we had a w1 and w2, and that w1 has defined the move down. a LOT of assumptions to make based on a Friday move, so my conviction in this last analysis is not as strong as it would be if that move was early in a week. But lets how the upcoming week starts.

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As hoped, UJ gap'd down a bit, about 13 pips.

Not a huge gap, but might signify momentum to continue downwards.
Will be watching the gap-fill attempt to gauge the effects of the gap.

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As ''MY'' Beyonce would say, ''Put a FIB on it''.
And so I have, (fib'ed the gap) and interesting resonances are already obvious.

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Gap filled and then some!
But notice the apparent rejection at the pair of 4.618's that were previously strong support

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Adding a small short here.
Was already 5% of capital short, now 10% (of capital allotted to this pair)

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Argh. Close all of my position now, with net 40 pips profit.

will look again before London Open

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Shroted again off this .618 rejection

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Still holding short (from Red Arrow) entered upon rejection at .618.
Just moved SL to the consolidation above the .382 (green arrow).
Hoping London wont knock me out again, would like to hold for much lower.

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Argh, stop hit again for only 5 pips profit.
Will keep trying to add positions, now waiting for London Open.

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TP 1 hit.
Finally, the pullback starts.
Perfect Tap of the expected Wave A point:

Close up of today's action, and my thoughts are on the pic

Getting a decent bounce to perhaps start the wave B.
But is a Friday end of day, am not expecting much more today.
Monday will be interesting.

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Time of day is Monday Morning open, so very little volume. Am still expecting a bounce here

And in small tf, bounce MIGHT be starting.

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UJ about to hit 2 important trend lines. And will either prove rising wedge to cause severe drop, or long term trend line will be tested and go back up

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Looks to be going for one last leg down, and if equal period again, then 111.20/21 is the price to watch

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Getting back to the trade itself.
Wave A down was longer than expected, but not surprising considering the fundamentals at work.
But I still expect a wave B bounce and then Wave C down again.
Here are two possible scenarios I am watching for:

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Uj not showing any signs of turning around.
But maybe a blow off bottom is in place?
If so, consolidation then a slow climb?

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Finally, a bounce, kind of.
Updated ABC projections here:

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Finally the wave B bounce.
Went a little higher than my Red plot, but not quite to my Blue plot.
I think Asia and EU sessions might push a little higher yet, taking que from US.
Observing for now, might add to my shorts soon.

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Watching closely for a possible rejection.

I forgot about an older Fib zone (in red) that was derived from larger tf fibs, and posted on Jul 1st here:

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Looks like ''Red Pill'' it is.
Added a small short here (red arrow down)

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Nice!
UJ just broke below a pesky Fib support zone from higher tf's.
Hopefully we can proceed towards the first TP

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Making decent progress now.

Support getting weaker and fundamentals making JPY stronger.

I am looking at this ''wide open space''.

There are surely other supports in that space? Will update with possible hurdles in between, but it looks like it could drop straight down.

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Closed 80% of this short position on BOJ news.
Looks like Yen pairs will head higher for a while.

EuroMotif

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פרסומים קשורים

USDJPY Fibonacci Support Resistance Zones: UJ as of Jul 1

מאת ‎EuroMotif‎

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