Russian Ruble on the verge of a devaluation

6 בינו׳ 2022

I haven't traded a trend in forex for years - this is the best looking currency chart I've seen in a VERY long time.

50 month MA
Tightening base
Close to a breakout from the pennant

Obviously unsure what the reasoning for this is, but I'd expect a catalyst sometime in 2022 that could send the ruble down double digit %

21 בפבר׳ 2022

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Update

24 בפבר׳ 2022

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Major breakout here. Targets 120


Currency markets are probably the closest thing there is to having a macroeconomic crystal ball

28 בפבר׳ 2022

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With the explosive move after the weekend news I would expect price action like this in short term. Rallies will likely be sold in the Ruble at every opportunity:


The 423 extension goes as high as 180s. From here it's impossible to guess where it can go, but as this is a major monthly breakout it is a likely a secular decline (in this case an uptrend in the USD against the Ruble) rather than a temporary devaluation, so 180s makes sense to me this year. But from a trade perspective the primary target has been reached

7 באפר׳ 2022

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For some reason the chart above no longer updates the forex pair (assuming the provider no longer offers the pair), but incredibly the Ruble reverted back to its pre-invasion price and 200dma. I would assume weakness in the Ruble will begin again off this level