USDTRY Long Setup

Hello, Lira recently recovered from the drop and at some point next year we should test this Green Curve again. (See Context below)
Thats where i will Long USDTRY . I have not really a clue when this will happen tho.

Current buy zone would be 8,95-9,2 (White Zone). This would be the buy zone if it touches the green curve soon but i doubt it and expect some weeks sideway from here.
But just in case we see a really fast test it could be worth having orders there currently.

I expect USDTRY to go sideway above my Curve in 2022 before propably going bearish again in 2023+

DYOR and please leave a like =)

הערה:

Lira is weakening exponential which shows in form of a Green Curve.

I expect to the price to move back and forth between Green Curve and Red Line.

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"I expect USDTRY to go sideway above my Curve in 2022 before propably going bearish again in 2023+"

Sorry i mean goes bullish in 2023+

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If Green Curve breaks i expect this to turn out the beginnig of a big bear market for USDTRY (aka bullmarket for Lira)...so i recommend to use some stop loss.

I dont think Lira wil turn bullish overall tho but there is a chance..

הערה:

white zone seems out of reach now.
anyway USDTRY will go back to recent low´s again next year, to my green curve.
expecting USDTRY to go down again after testing this zone

הערה:

If erdogan doesnt raise interest rates soon is see a possibility that this setup may fail and even 18usd+ wouldnt be off the cards. Normaly when there is a crisis like this the government steps in and does what has to be done. But Erdogan is a stupid, corrupt liar. M2 money supply is just crazy. My initial setup priced in that erdogan is not that stupid. But as long 13.6-14.6 doesnt break i expect to test green main curve.

הערה:

i mean i can also be wrong (DYOR) but i personally think its good to change your Lira into another currency next time we go down to white zone.
Until Green Curve broke it doesnt look good the next years.
It kinda all depends if Erdogan or the next President keeps printing Lira like crazy out of nowhere.

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By the way i dont think cryptocurrency are a good store of value, so i dont recommend changing lira to crypto.

And also stay away from Tether (USDT), better use USDC.

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If compared with the last lira crash in 2018 it took USD/TRY 8 week´s before going back down again. This would be end of this month.

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Hey, in the meantime i still dont see a change in erdogans monetary policy.
M2 is still expanding at and absurd rate.
I actually think we could go to this red curve as erdogan doesnt seem to fight inflation, yet.
be careful out there.