Data from ADP, unstable gold and weak oil

3 באוק׳ 2019

The publication of US employment data from ADP came out yesterday. However, the outcome did not form positions in the markets. The + 135K figure came out almost in line with forecasts (experts expected + 140K), so the markets did not get an answer to the question of what to expect from the NFP figures. Although in general, the vector is unpleasant for the US economy and the US dollar in particular ( a decrease in the number of new jobs and a gradual deterioration in the US labour market). So our position on the dollar today is unchanged - we will continue to look for points for its sales.

QAs for the dynamics of gold. Breakdown 1485-1490 gave the asset a sign to go down. The lows in the region of 1460 are in favour of that. But weak data on the US economy on Tuesday turned the situation upside down. Yesterday’s value of 1290 means the return to the bull market and the end of the correction. But since statistics on the US labour market will make the next batch of corrections already on Friday, we refrain from recommendations on gold this week: we will wait until the markets still decide whether to grow or fall.

As for the oil. The market-determined the basic drivers: a slowdown in the global economy as a negative factor in demand and production restoration by Saudi Arabia as a positive factor for supply. As a result, sellers continued to dominate, and in the evening also intensified amid information about US oil reserves. According to the Ministry of Energy, weekly stocks rose by 3 million barrels, which is a bearish signal. So today we do not see any special reasons for the growth. But on Friday may well be adjustments. So on Thursday, we will continue to look for points for oil sales, but exclusively on the intraday basis. Although we note that oil prices have almost reached the calculated points for the current decline, announced by us on Monday.

As for China and Germany, we do not expect anything special today. Tomorrow we are waiting for statistics on the US labour market, there is every reason to expect a relatively calm day, during which the markets will prepare for NFP data to realize. So today you can try to concentrate on active oscillatory intraday trading. For example, use clock oscillators and sell from the local overbought area and buy from the local oversold area. That is, to work without any obvious preferences.