Oil Markets Right Now; Predicting Future Moves

Hey Traders,

The rollercoaster that has ensued on Oil Markets is a very interesting one. From absolute lows, to absolute highs, every corner of the Market more or less has been explored.

The picture around Covid in 2020 was bleak. Oil prices went below freezing and people were paying others to take their oil away, as it was more cost effective rather than paying to store it.

This, was most certainly a fantastic time to buy and represented what was a completely sentiment sell off driven market. It was inevitable that everyone would again need oil at some point and having it at 0$ or less was just economically unfeasible. It was just a game of how low.

After this, when war broke out, the energy crisis and the driving up of oil prices due to sanctions and increased demand caused an enormous rally and spike. This was the opposite situation to what had just occured, and rather than being a great time to buy, you'd have been better off short at highs. Again, it was very likely that the necessity of oil would lessen as things changed and the price would return to reality, it is more or less unfeasible similarly to having extreme low prices. Economies would just overproduce it and bring the price down with increased supply.

As of late, we have found ourselves reading comments from Leaders of great oil consumers and OPEC about the stabilising of prices. This is a reasonable comment coming after reduced Chinese demand and increased US supply and sets the scene for the future and the talk around Oil prices going forward.

On the face of it, we are downtrending mid term. Thus, a further low within the reduced demand sentiment would not be completely unexpected. We can look to plan long entries alike investors, taking lower prices at this current point in time. Weakness also in price action amongst local and historical areas also will determine any further falls and on the face of it, also looks reasonably likely.

Nonetheless, a reasonable Pullback within the current move down would be ideal for short entries as price has already fallen and you'd be short into support. Long entries, as shown, are preferred lower at key Price Action areas that are labelled.

In any case, trade small inline with sentiment risk always.

הערה:

Minor longs are OK. Further shorts circa 81.5-82

הערה:

Exit any longs, looking very lightly short.

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Lock in short gains,

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Holding bias into Monday. Likely no new entries until significant move up or move down into next week.

הערה:

Assess your drawdown on this asset today pre market open. If it scares you, think about potential moves further and consider reducing.

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Refer to older long entry areas. Too low to short.

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Looking short higher circa 74$

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Still awaiting higher rise. would consider locking in any longside gains available.

הערה:

Light Longs. Be light VS sentiment.

הערה:

Exit longs for gains.

הערה:

No shorts at local highs, weak PA.

Shorts only at further impulse pushes.

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הערה:

Ran through as expected and shown above.

Exit longs, no new shorts until circa 93 bucks.

הערה:

Still holding off. Confusion bars printed across the board.