6/11/24 - $vtex - would consider in 5's, but patience best here
6/11/24 - vrockstar - 
VTEX - pretty familiar with this one from a past life. deciding to update my thinking for anyone that comes across this ticker w/ own POV's hopefully this helps:
have been sidelines on it for the last year-ish. the last Q defn brought a disappointment from the perspective of the revenue growth/ wins that created a bit of excitement in the prior Q's. here's what i'll say on valuation.
1) i genuinely think these guys have a really unique prop/ biz that's only second to shop. that being said,
SHOP is the elephant in the room and scale begets scale as 
BIGC learned the hard way. so growth DOES matter
2) so then what does growth get valued at if it's expected at 20% this year and profitability isn't relevant (to a large extent). the -ve to +ve does matter in an incremental-seeking market - but we're not there right now, all software/ecomm that's not delivering and or scaled is getting cut and "let's see later". i'd posit it's probably 2-4x depending on the biz.
3) if we say 3.5x that puts us (given the favorable balance sheet - which is a big plus) and no cash burn at about an EV of ~800 mm which is still a 20% haircut on the equity from here. while it matters how we get here (is it another Q, is it macro, is it consumer, is it geographical factor- e.g. Brazil-related) etc. it doesn't warrant necking out today.
conclusion/ how i'm playing it: it's not a "need" to own for me/ my book. i can own anything. so i set an alert under $6 (i'm not willing to pay 4-5x sales today for this) which is where it's at, still. and realistically i'd become more interested closer to that $5.5 level where we get that 20% discount and it trades closer to 3.5x and presumably we're further thru the cycle lows and coming out by that point. lmk if you have additional thoughts to add.
right now i think the only 3 names u can own in latam that are tech-ish are
NU, 
DLO, 
MELI and glob. anything else requires more nuance on timing inflections/ valuation discretion.
V
VTEX - pretty familiar with this one from a past life. deciding to update my thinking for anyone that comes across this ticker w/ own POV's hopefully this helps:have been sidelines on it for the last year-ish. the last Q defn brought a disappointment from the perspective of the revenue growth/ wins that created a bit of excitement in the prior Q's. here's what i'll say on valuation.
1) i genuinely think these guys have a really unique prop/ biz that's only second to shop. that being said,
SHOP is the elephant in the room and scale begets scale as BIGC learned the hard way. so growth DOES matter2) so then what does growth get valued at if it's expected at 20% this year and profitability isn't relevant (to a large extent). the -ve to +ve does matter in an incremental-seeking market - but we're not there right now, all software/ecomm that's not delivering and or scaled is getting cut and "let's see later". i'd posit it's probably 2-4x depending on the biz.
3) if we say 3.5x that puts us (given the favorable balance sheet - which is a big plus) and no cash burn at about an EV of ~800 mm which is still a 20% haircut on the equity from here. while it matters how we get here (is it another Q, is it macro, is it consumer, is it geographical factor- e.g. Brazil-related) etc. it doesn't warrant necking out today.
conclusion/ how i'm playing it: it's not a "need" to own for me/ my book. i can own anything. so i set an alert under $6 (i'm not willing to pay 4-5x sales today for this) which is where it's at, still. and realistically i'd become more interested closer to that $5.5 level where we get that 20% discount and it trades closer to 3.5x and presumably we're further thru the cycle lows and coming out by that point. lmk if you have additional thoughts to add.
right now i think the only 3 names u can own in latam that are tech-ish are
NU, DLO, MELI and glob. anything else requires more nuance on timing inflections/ valuation discretion. V
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