95USD crude thesis

15 בינו׳ 2022

Crude will probably retest and maybe exceed the 2021 high somewhat but a correction to cool things off seems necessary to bring us back to the green trendline which is sloped identically to previous ascents. The purple trendline which goes back to November 2020 is important and a retest of it seems likely. The red line which is a support/resistance line of previous peaks is also important and retest prone. The confluence of the 3 lines is where the ABC correction will end and the next 5-wave impulse will begin. The target is $95 by February 22, 2022, approximately. This target is the intersection of the time cycle of the previous 3 peaks and their channel line. I don't current have a thesis for what happens after that but I reckon selling is likely to occur.
I don't have a position, but this is my big picture thesis for day trading.

1 בפבר׳ 2022

הערה

this has not followed the ABC path but the price target still seems plausible

12 בפבר׳ 2022

הערה

we hit 94.66 today upon news that Russia is planning to invade Ukraine, $95 by Feb 22nd seems quite plausible but if we don't hit it, we certainly have gotten very close

14 בפבר׳ 2022

עסקה סגורה: היעד הושג

Price target has been hit 5 days early. Price did not follow the anticipated path and I did not get a chance to enter because the anticipated correction never manifested so I will not claim success on this idea.