I believe we are beginning to see the beginning stages of a break-down in oil that would have it trading around mid 40s soon.
On the daily tf, we can see a series of lower-highs created, with this last leg showing compression into a fresh daily level of supply (top grey box). A nice bearish engulfing candle was created last friday off of that fresh supply zone and looks like a continuation further down may be in store.
51.1 is an obvious demand level which can be tested, but without enough demand left in that level, i am seeing this break-down to be even more likely.
Again, i'll be analyzing this move down (if it happens) on lower time frames, where i'll be looking for opportunities to go short.
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